Sunday, October 15, 2006

Iraq The Model

tOkay buddy, it's really time for you to cut the hamballa.

This post is a reaction to the recent post at the infamous ITM blog, I was so taken aback by it that I just had to write something.

IRAQ THE MODEL is probably one of the few 'superstar' blogs the Iraqi blogosphere has produced, and this is for a few reasons: 1. It was an early blog and most importantly 2. It supports the American propaganda virtually 100% - it fits the picture of what Americans wants Iraqis to be hand in glove, a supporter of all that 'war on terrorism' campaign and if I didn't know better I would say that this guy is hands-on an American soldier who is just as naive as the clueless Iraqis who chanted to Saddam and believed their own made-up lies back in the days.

Understood, I appreciate democracy and freedom of speech, but I can safely say that the viewpoint of the people behind this blog represents about somewhere between 2 to 1% of all Iraqis, I would even go as far as call it an anomaly created by an extra chromosome or something, there are people, especially those who oppose religion and identity, who could get sold up to the American Dream, to be part and parcel of all the ideals America stands for, I am not saying that Arabs are helplessly monstorous that they oppose liberty and democracy and want to be spend all day playing Russian Roulette with swords, but there is such a thing as an identity with your nation, and these guys make me sick with their obvious sucking-up they are doing to be sold out to Americans. It could be that they are just trying to achieve a common goal of a modern, democratic Iraq by sounding like a brainwash, but they play it so industriously well that my intuition tells me that there is something else on the take.

IRAQ THE MODEL is an example of the mentality that currently prevails the Green Zone, nervous Iraqis who just want to make a few bucks by catering to an audience and telling them what they want to hear, maybe their intentions were earnest in the beginning, but now things have started to look messed up and if they deviate from the fake sugar-ass bullshit they've been shoving up their audience their popularity will end, so they choose to go all the way, working up a good chunk of money with all the revenue from the ads until they can safely call it quits and retire in some nice Friends of Democracy-compatible country, spending all their well-earnt money on hoes and booze.

Could you tell me, my dear friends Omar and Mohammed, WHY is this list fake? do you have a single shred of proof as to why these Lancet documents and statistics are such a 'disgrace to all the women, children and men who died'? merely calling it fake and disgusting just don't cut it, please stop living the lie, and take a look outside your window. You call them careless for the victims of this country! I cannot believe this! "Using data for own gains." You have just proved your own point.

Like most other Iraqi bloggers, this site makes me nauseous, they make me fall alseep anyway by the half of any given post - but, I call on all Iraqi bloggers to campaign against this horrible freak of a blog, maybe back in the day you worked for the glory of Iraq, but now you have turned against it and sold it out for the first pile of greens that were shoved up your way. I don't want you to renounce America, we need them as much as you are afraid that they will leave, but I just want you to say the truth, for God's sake, like what Zeyad did, it didn't hurt, see? He's gone to the US just the same.


PROPRAGANDA! PROPRAGANDA! PROPRAGANDA!
A$$ - KI$$ER! A$$ - KI$$ER! A$$ - KI$$ER!


Pissed Off Iraqi

254 comments:

1 – 200 of 254   Newer›   Newest»
John D Infidel said...

Konfused Kid,

Mohammed and Omar are free to express their opinions as they see fit on their blog. You and other Iraqi bloggers ganging up on them is censorship.

Anyhow, you're a Metallica fan ... that's cool. Here's a short post of mine that was inspired by Metallica: http://i-infidel.blogspot.com/2006/09/king-nothing-of-al-qaeda-in-iraq.html

An Italian. said...

Kid,

it was high time for an Iraqi blogger to publically disown those two paid traitors to their country (and to the whole of humankind and civilisation).

Bravo!

Konfused Kid said...

Dear Infidel

I do not have anything against their expression, I too expressed my disapproval, it's like what Voltaire sasy:

I disapprove of your opinion, but I defend to death your right to say it.

I don't want to kill them, I just somebody to talk back for a change, we could have a nice discussion, you know...

miraj said...

Konfused Kid,

You have my 100% support for your post.

I just cannot believe an Iraqi who is living among us, who is suffering just like us, who is witnessing all the killing, who is probably watching his own parents suffering in their own country they brought him to, to do this and betray us all.

Unless of course he is one of those beneficiaries from the invasion or the government.

What Iraq the Model did was a stab in the back of his own flesh and blood.

Walla ma3a Alasaf

It's time to unite against all the unfairness in this world against Iraqis but now we'll have to unite against some Iraqis it seems.

miraj said...

john and all the americans who approved Iraq the Model on his last post,
you are saying that just because he defended your monkey,oops your president, other wise I do not see you commenting on all the killing happening in Iraq since your country decided to fool the world and invade our country by the two lousy words of freedom and democracy which I hope one day you'll know their meaning the way we do. Your country opened the hell gates to our country and now your whining about the numbers of dead iraqis.
Look down at your hands!! Do you see our blood? Don't answer.

Wait till you hear about the REAL numbers of American soldiers killed in Iraq. You think the numbers you hear on your media are true? Then think again.

Anonymous said...

If all Iraqis were like the IraqTheModel brothers, Iraq would be the best place to live on earth. Instead, Iraq is a violent, evil place where nobody trusts anybody, gangs rule the streets, and backward ideologies run rampant.

The biggest mistake America made was thinking that more Iraqis would think, believe, and behave like the ITM brothers. We vastly overestimated the intelligence and capabilities of Iraqis.

Iraqi Observer said...

A very timely post, Kid. I have been following Iraqi blogs, particularly Iraq the Model, since they started back in 2003. I was wondering when some Iraqi bloggers would start addressing the foul propaganda they produce daily for their American audience. They have never ever strayed from the Bush and Co party line. Their last post was just too much for me to handle.

I have been waiting for this post for the last 3 years. May God bless you.

Anonymous said...

The Lancet results are very inaccurate as a simple reading of their method would prove. The study basically surveyed 1,849 households and extrapolated that to the whole population. Such a study is bound to be inaccurate and this casts doubt on the credibility of the whole process. The fact that they claim 85,000 Iraqis have died from airstrikes alone should have cast doubts on the study in the first place.

Also, this quote from AP should also serve to cast doubts on the study: "The researchers, reflecting the inherent uncertainties in such extrapolations, said they were 95 percent certain that the real number lay somewhere between 392,979 and 942,636 deaths." Wow, if that doesn't reflect the inaccuract of this study then I don't know what to say.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that a lot of innocent Iraqis haven't lost their lives, I'm just saying that the methods of this study reduce the credibility of the numbers they have came up with.

Anonymous said...

The Lancet results are very inaccurate as a simple reading of their method would prove. The study basically surveyed 1,849 households and extrapolated that to the whole population. Such a study is bound to be inaccurate and this casts doubt on the credibility of the whole process. The fact that they claim 85,000 Iraqis have died from airstrikes alone should have cast doubts on the study in the first place.

Also, this quote from AP should also serve to cast doubts on the study: "The researchers, reflecting the inherent uncertainties in such extrapolations, said they were 95 percent certain that the real number lay somewhere between 392,979 and 942,636 deaths." Wow, if that doesn't reflect the inaccuract of this study then I don't know what to say.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that a lot of innocent Iraqis haven't lost their lives, I'm just saying that the methods of this study reduce the credibility of the numbers they have came up with.

Iraqi Observer said...

Anonymous, that is not the point of this post. No one is embracing the study's result without reservations. The point is that hundreds of thousands of innocent Iraqis have perished as a direct result of this war. What was the goal in ousting Saddam Hussein in the first place if much more Iraqis are dying now than under his rule?

If the American and Iraqi governments truly cared they would have counted the dead Iraqis. But they don't seem to have such an interest, which says a lot.

Scott from Oregon said...

Hey Kid. Yes, the sugar coating has gone on long enough. Time to call a diseased animal, a diseased animal. Trouble is, do you shoot it? Or do you prescribe medicinals? And if you prescribe medicinals, then what is the prescription?

Omar and Mohammed for a long time have maintained that there is enough negativity regarding Iraq already, and that they planned on trying to maintain a positive slant.

This was a welcome relief to the opposite side of the coin, ala Riverbend.

Neither have truly been an honest broker in the imbroglio. And both have benifited by an American audience eager to lap up their "take" on the situation.

You got a solution to the ugly behavior seen daily by Iraqis in Iraq?

If so, by all means, share it.

Most of the world is looking for a reasonable denoument to a bad situation.

Help out by giving it to them.

Grim Ghost said...


The Lancet results are very inaccurate as a simple reading of their method would prove. The study basically surveyed 1,849 households and extrapolated that to the whole population. Such a study is bound to be inaccurate and this casts doubt on the credibility of the whole process.


Only an utter moron would make such a statement. This methodology is based on the laws of statistics and the law of large numbers. I know wingnuts rely on faith based mathematics, but I confess I did not believe that one would simply claim that the law of large numbers does not exist.

Polls in the US, and lots of other statistics (CPI, employment numbers etc.) are based on exactly the same techniques. This is not new mathematics, its between known for centuries.


Also, this quote from AP should also serve to cast doubts on the study: "The researchers, reflecting the inherent uncertainties in such extrapolations, said they were 95 percent certain that the real number lay somewhere between 392,979 and 942,636 deaths." Wow, if that doesn't reflect the inaccuract of this study then I don't know what to say.


Maybe you should have kept quiet since there may have been some doubt as to whether you were a total ignoramus or not, but now there is none.

It is a mathematical fact that all such statistical sampling has an inherent margin of error. This is based on the Central Limit theorem. This unavoidable error is present in all sampling, which is why they give a margin of error.

What an utter idiot.

Grim Ghost said...


Omar and Mohammed for a long time have maintained that there is enough negativity regarding Iraq already, and that they planned on trying to maintain a positive slant.


And the way in which they tried to present a positive stance was to combat the lancet study how ? Did they actually read the paper ? DId they try and challenge the maths ? Did they do what Zeyad did, which is to present an honest disagreement (he thought the result was 2 times 2 high, but he said that deaths were undercounted).

No, they referrred to the study writers as sadists and bloodhirsty liars, and went off on a rant about North Korea.

NO decent iraqi. no decent human could possibly treat such a study this way. IKKK is right, these 2 are scum.

luckent47 said...

how fucking DARE you talk shit about the brothers you fucking puke.
you can agree with scum leftists like snott from owegon all you want but it doesnt make you right.
we spill our blood for your fucking freedom so you can do what? rape and murder each other and then fucking blame everybody but your sorry backward ass?!!
go right ahead and get your little echo chamber "friends" and censor the ITM just like the shithead saddam, its your first fucking reaction isnt it?!!
Youre just a little victim that wants every fucking thing to be "fair" so you can live your life criticising people that actually DO something for freedom.
NEVER in the history of the planet -which includes every country not just the US- has a LIBERATING force done more to avoid ANY causalities including ENEMY COMBATANTS!!!
but you could never imagine yourself admitting that could you?
We DIE for your fucking freedom and all your lame ass can do is bitch about how?
well then little man you can fuck right the fuck off with all your stupid shit voltaire quotes too.
You don't deserve to breath freedom, youre a leechjust like snott the pedophile.
Shut the fuck up and DO something you fucking pussy..

madtom said...

I hate to bust your bubble, but this is nothing new. Your not the first Iraq Blogger to claim that ITM is on the take, or an US soldier in disguise. Your just the last guy to make that claim. I think way back when Juan Cole made similar remarks, it was well established that they are for real. Not everyone is against America, or it values, even in Iraq.

luckent47 said...

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htmurph/articles/20061013.aspx

whitey hates me
waaaaaaaaaaaah waaaaaaaaah

wake up pinko..

Indigo said...

Bravo. Well said. Iraq The Model blog became unreadable after Omar and Mohammed went to the US and met President Bush. Anyone with half a brain cell could see then that it was for all intents and purposes taken over by US military psysops.

Stand by for your comments section to be over-run by the red-necked no-nothings that usually infest ITM's comments section. Well done. (When blood-thirsty Republicans accuse you of having forgotten to take "medication", it means that you have rattled their cage. It's a very American, very peculiar insult.)

Scott from Oregon, it's the first time I have seen your "avatar". You are just as ugly as you have always sounded.

Indigo said...

Oops, "red-necked no-nothings" should read "red-necked know-nothings".

And to those trotting out the old tripe about "we" dying for "you" Iraqis to bring you "fweedom" and "democwacy" - your country invaded Iraq on a lie, there was no WMD, there was no connection between Saddam and 9/11 - no, it was because President Bush and his cronies wanted to "liberate" Iraqi oil. If you don't want to die in Iraq, don't join the US army. Simple as that.

ella said...

Kid

They have their own take on the Lancet data even if what they think is what only 2% of Iraqis think, even if they may be wrong.
Accusing them of selling out is as also a propaganda.
And I think that in all societies there are some people who do not agree with majority and ganging on them is in my view wrong.
That's what many muslims are doing in europe, ganging on other muslims who do not want to wear hijab, who do not want to listen to what some clerics tell in mosques, who do not want to follow Khamenei even though they are originally from Iran.
Don't you think that you, on your blog,in a very small way, have just done the same?

Kid, please understand I do not think you intentionally done that, I think you are just disgusted, but I would like you to think, because from such small things may come bigger, ugly ones.

Treasure of Baghdad said...

Pro-war Americans want to hear good news only and they can't find only on the ITM blog.

They don't want to admit their mission in Iraq has failed and the whole country is dying because of their stupid president and the henchmen around him.

For them the ITM blog is like a drug they take in order to forget their terrible failure.


Alas!

Anonymous said...

This American can't believe we pissed away hundreds of billions and sacrificed thousands of soldiers on this tribal cesspool cobbled together by turks hundreds of years ago. I miss Sadman. He sold oil below market prices,and he didn't put up with Muslim bullshit. Let the man out of jail and get our troops the flock out of that shithole.

white rose said...

kid,
I just read ITM's blog..
i didnt see a substancial argument there to prove his point.
while hes obviousely turning a blind eye on everything happening in iraq, i dont think he has a good foot to stand on here and that to me says: IGNORE!

have a nice day all :)

agool, hay sheno 3eenie inta thayig men blogaatna?!
i3terif i3ritif...khiyaana 3uthma!

;)

Nadia said...

Hi there Konfused Kid! You have my 100% support for your post too.

Katrin said...

miraj,

It's time to unite against all the unfairness in this world against Iraqis but now we'll have to unite against some Iraqis it seems.

What a mighty brillant and innovative idea.

As if Iraqis weren't killing each other already :-(

How about not uniting against anything but for something? Something like a common future?

annie said...

kid, i love your voice, your brutal honesty. you are a great writer and have a wonderful mind. w/ every new post of yours i read you bring me closer to the heart of you and show me a glimpse of a real iraqi. you should be proud. you are very talented. i feel honored when i come here.

you should listen hard to lucifer47. he is your enemy, he is everything ugly and horrible about america. he epitomizes the cancer that has invaded your country. the link he posted takes you right to the core of his thinking. an arab hate site. in a way, i suppose we can all be greatful that he has provided us once again w/an opportunity to know the enemy.

we spill our blood for your fucking freedom so you can do what?

listen you little fuckhead, do us all a favor and get your cowardly ass out of iraq. you don't know the meaning of freedom anymore than a rapist knows the meaning of compassion. iraqi's aren't interested in your brand of freedom, get it. w/everyday you spend their lusting after iraqi treasure you perpetuate genocide.

US- has a LIBERATING force done more to avoid ANY causalities including ENEMY COMBATANTS!!!

gag me w/your stupid yelling, nobody is buying your bs anymore. you are being led down a false path by an evil neocon force w/an idiot at the masthead.

I would like you to think, because from such small things may come bigger, ugly ones.

really ella? kinda like the little dollars extracted from american paychecks adds up to billions and billions of dollars for big ugly wars.

Accusing them of selling out is as also a propaganda.

no it isn't. go open a dictionary.

i linked to ITM once. it didn't even occur to me it wasn't a government troll operation. i am surprised these guys are actually iraqi. ignore them. rightwing blogs are completely predictable and boring. just shun them.
do not link to them,do not comment. they have a master now.

i am praying for you, know in your heart, hearts ached all over the world when we heard the numbers, and we knew.
i mourn for your losses daily.

in solidarity

Anonymous said...

http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/donations/IraqiBloggerTechnicalSupport_Donations.htm

MixMax said...

Kid,
I won't start bashing, because anyone is entitled to his/her own opinon. I support your words and you stand to the issue, even if the lancet repport is inaccurate, but my own response justify my opinion:
http://mixmode.blogspot.com/2006/10/die-for-freedom.html

Konfused Kid said...

Hey...

I am not anti-US per se, like a lot of Arabs, who have a cartoon view that simply takes it for granted that everything the "GREAT SATAN" is evil and inhuman, but I want you, the American people, to UNDERSTAND the mess you have gotten yourself into, to feel our pain and suffering, why should I feel grateful to be liberated? I just don't want you to get hypnotized by ur own drugs, US used Iraq for its own agenda, and so did I, I was a full supporter of US policies all the way before April 9,2003 - although I did not believe a single word of it, but I wanted freedom and liberty, however, I disapprove of it all the way after the date. If the liberation has caused that horrendous amount of people, no matter how much they are, to die and suffer? Why should I feel grateful, remember, even though I wanted it to happen, I DID NOT ASK FOR IT IN THE FIRST PLACE, you brought it! therefore, hey presto, you should FIX IT. Not me, I am a clueless Iraqi who's watching his friends and family members die by the bucketful. The solution is not to simply kiss-up, the solution is to stand up and face the music, and that what bugs me about Iraq The Model - they simply are the opposite side of the cartoon, what would you rather have? Truth hurts.

Anonymous said...

Given the timing of this study and the previous one, there's a rather obvious motivation for the timing. Think about it: what good does this estimate achieve for Iraq? Will it make the terrorist groups disband and stop killing Iraqis? Unlikely.

I don't know about this study, but there were fatal flaws in the previous attempt - apart from anything else, it assumed the death rate after the first Gulf War (while Iraq's economy collapsed and the sanctions apparently killed hundreds of thousands) was much *lower* than before the invasion of Kuwait - ever so slightly far-fetched, surely? That hugely inflated their earlier estimate, making a later claim of an even higher figure less plausible still.

An Italian. said...

Dear Kid,

In the case of the two ‘brothers’ at ‘Iraq The Minion’, Omar & Mohammed Fadhil, it is not just a matter of freedom of speech, but the fact that the two are two criminals for hire, cheerleading the extermination of Iraqi civilians.

On the 7th of June 2006, after the usual death squads dressed in Ministry of Interior uniforms had kidnapped 50 civilians in the Salhiya district of Baghdad, releasing 13 of them after torture, these two paid criminals wrote on their grotesque blog that the raid was a ‘shortcut’ to eliminate “terror cells in Baghdad without having to go through courts and time-consuming police investigations and paperwork” (!!!).
Then these two Fadhil criminals decided that the Sunni civilians who had been kidnapped by the death squads were ‘terrorists’: “Those kidnapped/arrested probably had ties with local insurgents and/or al-Qaeda in Iraq, especially in the western region of the country”.

And then the two traitors and vermin at ‘Iraq The Minion’ asked for the kidnapped civilians to be put to death, giving this most humanitarian ‘justification’: “it is quite possible that this operation was conducted by an independent security corps taking orders directly from the president, PM or US military to strike a particular target quickly and without the hassle of traditional justice…a legitimate force, maybe a special counter-terrorism force or one belonging to the Iraqi intelligence/military intelligence service but performing operations in a dirty (yet effective) way, capturing suspects, forcefully interrogating them and executing those found guilty and releasing those found innocent”.

Useless to say that the corpses of the forty or so Iraqi civilians were found in the next few days, carrying the signs of horrible tortures, precisely like these two dishonourable criminal rats at ITM had advocated.

Not just a matter of freedom of speech…



And, even if those two stick out like a sore thumb, being two Iraqis who have betrayed their country for money, they aren’t the only ones paid by the Americans to spread their inane propaganda.

You have two of them right in this comments page: ‘ella’, a Polish woman living in Toronto, and ‘katrin’, a German.
The few non-American warmongers that used to post in the comments pages of Iraqi blogs did, as you know, disappear long ago, since the US war went wrong; but now, at this late stage, when even the American warmongers know that they have lost, in these past few months this ‘ella’ has popped up, and in the last few weeks this ‘katrin’… strange, isn’t it?

Paid, most likely, by the Lincoln Group to spread pro-war and pro-US propaganda, precisely like the two rats at ‘Iraq The Minion’.

Fool me once…

Konfused Kid said...

Dear Italian..

I don't think so. You are being the opposite side of the extreme.

John said...

If the liberation has caused that horrendous amount of people, no matter how much they are, to die and suffer? Why should I feel grateful, remember, even though I wanted it to happen, I DID NOT ASK FOR IT IN THE FIRST PLACE, you brought it! therefore, hey presto, you should FIX IT. Not me, I am a clueless Iraqi who's watching his friends and family members die by the bucketful. The solution is not to simply kiss-up, the solution is to stand up and face the music, and that what bugs me about Iraq The Model - they simply are the opposite side of the cartoon, what would you rather have? Truth hurts.

Who do you blame for the sectarian violence? Americans? Would you like to blame us that we did not forsee it? I can see it now...we should have sent 300,000 soldiers in because we should have assumed that Iraqi would kill Iraqi with such ease. Then of course you would have been crying "OCCUPIER" even more and also claimed that it was Americans stereotyping Arabs as corrupt killers.

Not so long ago in a post you wrote you took pride in that anyway.
"I took up a taxi again and as soon as we reached the place I felt a sense of wondrous, wondrous pride of the people of my area, goddamit, we are strong, word on the street that something as big as 400 Interior forces members were killed."

Who will you blame for that? It sounds like you are happy the way it is fixed there.

The truth does hurt.



John
An American Soldier in Iraq

John said...

I have a follow up question

What is it you want us to fix? Get out? Would that solve your pride in killing Iraqi Govt Forces? To go into Sadr City? And if we did...how soon would you cry that it is heavy handedness by the "occupier".

Why dont the Iraqi Kurds have the same problems?

John

Konfused Kid said...

Hey John, how you doing:

as you sound like a really argument-prone dude and not one of these who'd just swear it all over, here's my reply:

I do NOT blame sectarain violence on Americans, but they indirectly share a part of the blame. because they adopted a course of policies that could have prevented such a thing from happening.

As I told you over and over, I am not one of those brainless 'anti-occupation' staunch guys, but I am not one of these flowery liberators type either. I tell you what I see, and all I see is common interests, gain and benefits. I do NOT support American withdrawal, but I wish they could've taken a more studied approach for the post-invasion part. On the Iraqi street, American soldiers are more trusted than Iraqi ones. and for good reasons, I do not LOVE you, but I do not HATE you either. We must work together for the common interest. and to do so, we have to have a realistic viewpoint, not a flowery, rosy painting.

As for the pride in my post, that was totally sectarain and wrong, I even admitted to this in the post itself (check), but it serves as a reminder that even normal citizens can be dragged into the civil war. Sect identitiy is a dangerous, dangerous thing. that was peer pressure talking.

Melantrys said...

Who do you blame for the sectarian violence? Americans? Would you like to blame us that we did not forsee it?

Well, excuse me, John, maybe no-one bothered to tell you in person, but take a guess at why, for instance, the bad "Old Europe" refused to support Bush in this war. Because every ME expert predicted what is happening right now. They said that if you removed Saddam without having a real good plan for a new and instant replacement government a civil war would break out. I wish they had been wrong, but they weren't.
Maybe you and most other soldiers can plead ignorance of that fact, but your government can't. They knew. They were warned by experts from within America and without. So Bush either thought "Ah, well, I know more about the ME than those experts, after all Saddam wanted to kill my daddy" or he just didn't give a damn.
I still haven't figured out what is actually worse, that he was too stupid to listen to experts or that he didn't care.

Anonymous said...


Given the timing of this study and the previous one, there's a rather obvious motivation for the timing. Think about it: what good does this estimate achieve for Iraq?


Well, Iraqis may think that is important that they know how many Iraqis were killed post invasion. Ifyou're an American wingnut or essentially an American wingnut in Iraq (Iraq the moron), then you don't care. Your statement is indeed very instructive -- after all, why on Earth would anyone want to know how many people were killed to satisfy wingnut delusions.


I don't know about this study, but there were fatal flaws in the previous attempt - apart from anything else, it assumed the death rate after the first Gulf War (while Iraq's economy collapsed and the sanctions apparently killed hundreds of thousands) was much *lower* than before the invasion of Kuwait - ever so slightly far-fetched, surely? That hugely inflated their earlier estimate, making a later claim of an even higher figure less plausible still.


You are a total moron. Your comments about the old study are wrong. But they are irrelavant anyway. The new study estimates pre-occupation deaths by the same sampling method, in the clusters they used. In short, its not based on whatever talking points you learned on a wingnut blog.

Anonymous said...


They have their own take on the Lancet data even if what they think is what only 2% of Iraqis think, even if they may be wrong.


Omar's take on the Lancet data is what ?
-- Does he contest the methodology ?
-- Does he try and present an alternate number with some backing ?

He calls the study aughors liars and bloodthirsty sadists. That is their take and their rational response.


Any decent Iraqi, any decent human being would have been concerned by the study, even if he or she disagreed. Iraq the Moron has shown that they are liars, and thugs themselves by their contempt for Iraqi lives.

And yes, I believe they are genuine Iraqis, although the adultation of wingnuts and Wolfowitz has probably gone to their heads. They are Iraqis by birth, but by behavior, they are wingnut scumbags.

Anonymous said...

Stating that the deaths are caused by the occupation helps the position of the extremists doing the killing.

I'm sure Iraq the Model would have no problem if the article stated that the cause of these deaths were the militants in Iraq since it would then weaken these ones.

Katrin said...

Could the Italian tell me please, where he keeps my money? I need it!

John said...

I do NOT blame sectarain violence on Americans, but they indirectly share a part of the blame. because they adopted a course of policies that could have prevented such a thing from happening.

What policies specifically to prevent sectarian violence? I am open to listening/discussion/argument. Americans called for all sides to come into the political process peacefully and work together. Sunni leadership in its infinite wisdom boycotted and refused to work with others (read American conspiracy and Occupier as we pushed for all Iraqi sides to share in power :/ )

What American policy would have prevented Mosque Bombings and Iraqis killing Iraqis over religious sect? You can say that it was the dismantling of the police force and Army. But first of all they for the most part just melted away by themselves in the beginning as far as I see, and secondly who would have truly trusted them?

I did not accuse you of being staunch anything. You can love me or hate me...it is your choice. You can say we misjudged some things and were heavey handed in the beginning. But you cannot keep blaming and using Americans as an excuse for everything with what is wrong here...nor will doing that help Iraq move forward. It only moves it backwards in my opinion because it passes responsibility away from the causes of the problems today.

You will see it in people like melantrys post. They will cry and whine about the war from 3 1/2 years back.(regardless of what Saddam did to Iraqis or that a majority of Iraqis are still happy he is gone). I will address melantrys though separately when I have a moment.

I wish that today at least Iraq was like Kurdistan...that we could be here as a token force to protect Iraq from outside forces until it got up to speed with National defense. Then we could leave and I could go home to my life and leave you with yours. I see local village health centers we built sit empty as the MOH hasnt "approved" them and I would love to go kick someone in the ass at the MOH to get things moving. I wish when we went to local villages we didnt have to go as a tactical operation...that we could go there relaxed to access needs as we try help improve conditions there...just as we do in 10's of other nations.

We can help. We try to help. But the future of Iraq is in Iraqi hands. You cannot help those who do not wish to be helped. Now as someone here I just feel my hands are bound.

As to what your original post was about. I just got a chance to read it as I am in my room now (apart from some conspiracy theorists that IRAQTHEMODEL is american propaganda done buy american agents...it is blocked on the Army's computers...strange hmm? LOL Go Conspiracy theories!!!!!) Lancets numbers were suspect by many when they came out with 100,000 maybe 1 1/2 years ago. Do you think it has jumped 500,000 since even with no real major US military operations? I guess though regardless of what numbers you choose it is too many innocent people. I cannot say they meant by writing it. But I can only presume after I read the response there, they feel it's (lancets) intent is to influence the opinion of whether we should be here or not...and in effect should we abandon Iraqi's to fight the chaos in their country alone. It seems melantrys and old europe want that.

John

An Italian. said...

Dear Kid,

“I don't think so”.

About what do you disagree? ITM or the two ostensibly ‘European’ posters here?


“You are being the opposite side of the extreme”.

Maybe.
But remember, Kid, that it was not my ‘extreme’ that invaded your country in 2003, and destroyed it; and that it is not my ‘extreme’ that has been murdering your people ever since, day by day, either through its occupation troops or through the sectarian death squads it organised.

annie said...

Stating that the deaths are caused by the occupation helps the position of the extremists doing the killing.

Who do you blame for the sectarian violence? Americans?


i am not sure where either of you are from, but in this country america, when you are directly involved in murder (i guess war crimes count) whether it is by your own hand, you become responsible. whether you plan the assault, drive the vehicle, or just plan on robbing someone and the gun goes off. when chief clearing bush called all insurgents or terrorists to 'bring it on' in iraq so that we could slaughter it out in this rich oil country instead of here in the homeland, he kicked he anthill (military term for you know what) in a way that directly linked america to all the death and violence going on today. america is responsible in part for EVERY DEATH that has taken place in iraq since the start of the 'liberation'. that doesn't even touch apon training the death squads.

Americans? Would you like to blame us that we did not forsee it?

who's we? the state department prepared a several million dollar study of exactly what would happen in iraq. generals told of what would happen. it was not ignored, they read it . they made another choice based on neocon office of special plans. why?

So Bush either thought "Ah, well, I know more about the ME than those experts, after all Saddam wanted to kill my daddy" or he just didn't give a damn.

not very creative of you melantrys. first off there is an abundance of evidence that points in other directions. even if it doesn't tho, why would you limit yourself to only these 2 possiblitites?

he gave a damn alright. he gave a damn for the money to be made, the billions not only for his crony defense contractors global elite cohorts. he is also following a master plan to create a 'new middle east' based on seperate smaller regions (divide and conquer, read a clean break). iraqi death has never been about caring or not caring, it is about not mattering. it matters not whether there are any iraqi's left in iraq. every iraqi who kills another, makes one less for us to kill. if iraq were peaceful there would be no reason for our continued occupation.america built the largest embasy in the world in baghdad because we plan on being there for the long run.

I don't think so. You are being the opposite side of the extreme.

kid, you have to be realistic here. it is an established fact that americans have spent millons, and continue to spend millions, to monitor and influence the information. part of this is paid bloggers. lincoln company, rendon, and the airforce all have people who come onto blogs. for the most part they have the same MO's. they introduce themselves, tell you where they were from, how they happened apon the site. if you don't think they are here, then where? really, they are pretty easy to spot. for the most part they have the same 'voice', similiar character. the thing is, even if they are getting paid to argue w/us here, they actually are real people made of flesh and blood. some of them might believe in karma, or god, or hell. maybe it will dawn on them they might end up there one day for being complicit in this horror.

ready for the coup?

John said...

"Melantrys said...

Well, excuse me, John, maybe no-one bothered to tell you in person, but take a guess at why, for instance, the bad "Old Europe" refused to support Bush in this war. Because every ME expert predicted what is happening right now. They said that if you removed Saddam without having a real good plan for a new and instant replacement government a civil war would break out. I wish they had been wrong, but they weren't.
Maybe you and most other soldiers can plead ignorance of that fact, but your government can't. They knew. They were warned by experts from within America and without. So Bush either thought "Ah, well, I know more about the ME than those experts, after all Saddam wanted to kill my daddy" or he just didn't give a damn.


There are many guesses at why "Old Europe" refused to support the war...and most carry about as much credence as your reason. Why doesn't "old Europe" seem to actually care that a majority of Iraqis are happy he has gone?

I will presume that the recontruction plan was to rebuild Iraq the way that we helped "OLD EUROPE" rebuild. Which was far more destroyed and devestated than Iraq.

As bad as American Foreign policy is at times...Europe's is even more pathetic. We didnt want to get involved in the Balkans...it was a European affair in their own backyard...but they couldnt even handle that. But that is neither here nor there nor Iraq.

So are saying that Europe didnt want to go into Iraq because they "KNEW" that Shia and Sunni could not get along? They "KNEW" that Iraqi's would kill each other in civil war? They "KNEW" there would be a good chance of civil war? why? What would compel civil war in Iraq? I would love to see an answer from you and your opinion...not parroting of someone else. But really, doesnt say much about "old Europe's" faith in Iraqis.

Now that Iraqi's need help the most....where is your "old europe"?

I will pose to you the same question as I did KK. Why is Kurdistan so much better off right now? Why is that an area absent of so much of the violence we see? That is a success story (so far) So why is it so hard for the rest of Iraq to follow?

John

John said...

Annie says
i am not sure where either of you are from, but in this country america, when you are directly involved in murder (i guess war crimes count) whether it is by your own hand, you become responsible. whether you plan the assault, drive the vehicle, or just plan on robbing someone and the gun goes off. when chief clearing bush called all insurgents or terrorists to 'bring it on' in iraq so that we could slaughter it out in this rich oil country instead of here in the homeland, he kicked he anthill (military term for you know what) in a way that directly linked america to all the death and violence going on today. america is responsible in part for EVERY DEATH that has taken place in iraq since the start of the 'liberation'. that doesn't even touch apon training the death squads.


Annie

So what would you do to help the Iraqi's now?

How is America directly responsible for Iraqi on Iraqi sectarian killings in Iraq? Yes I get the gun in hand complicity logic....but how does it apply.

So you are saying that our prescence unleased the sectarian violence therefore we are responsible?

Conversely...if you know murder is going on and you do nothing are you not also responsible? So is the world (including you) responsible for any Iraqis killed by Saddam's regime? Is the world (you too) responsible for Rwandan's killed too?

John

ella said...

Melantrys

Who do you call Europe? Germans will not send their troops anywhere, france opposed the war because they had very good relationship with Sadam, as well as they do have large number of muslims, Spain sent troops but they got out after bombing of trains, denmark, itally, portugal, netherlands sent their troops (not many but why do you discount them?)
The Europe has been warned by experts who for example in Norway did hail mr Krekar from Ansar al Islam and in 2003 left him go free wherever he wanted and who called 9/11 gift from Allah. Perhaps you have forgotten that in the scandal concerned food-for-oil were implicated people from Europe, having high position in EU government?
Your experts are not against introducing sharia in France, Denmark and UK, would you like that?

And before somebody will accuse me of being "right-wing nut" I am from Europe so I know what I am talking about.

Kid

I agree with John, how can americans prevent sectarian violence without help from iraqis themselves?
Majority of your compatriots will not help americans, they will sooner attack them (and Brits, and Poles). Some of them will also attack other Iraqis.
Do you have any ideas/proposals?

An Italian. said...

@ 'ella', Lincoln Group.

"itally, portugal, netherlands sent their troops (not many but why do you discount them?)".

Wasn't Italy, but that common criminal Berlusconi. Now they are out of Iraq, after having trained 15,000 members of the Badr Brigades and of the Mahdi Army in Nasiriya (nice, ain't it?).
The others have been withdrawn from Iraq as well.
So maybe, after all, you do NOT "know what [you are] talking about".

madtom said...

Actually someone told me, I have not checked myself, that the study credits 71% of the deaths to Iraqi on Iraqi violence. Just adding that for the conversation.

annie said...

So you are saying that our prescence unleased the sectarian violence therefore we are responsible?

yes, and i am not alone. i would say the global majority would share my sentiments here, as would most iraqis.

So what would you do to help the Iraqi's now?

you crack me up. if someone accosted you would you then put that same perpetrator in a position to 'help' you? what we are doin is not helping the situation in iraq. take out the option of it being us who 'help' iraqis. face it, the only requirement for the solutions available in iraq for the US is that we remain. the invader should not be afforded that option. iraqi's overwhelmingly want us to leave their country. we should. it is not for us to decide, just like it is not for the iraqis to decide our domestic policies.

as for the healing to begin, after evacuating the green zone and handing the keys to iraqis i think a war crimes trial for the entire cheney administration would go a long way towards healing iraq and the sentiment here at home.i would like to see the war criminals who made billions off the suffering of iraqis to stand trial. in iraq. w/iraqi judges. then let them decide what kind of 'help' they require of us.

How is America directly responsible for Iraqi on Iraqi sectarian killings in Iraq?

this kinda stuff sending steel to work thru the MOI to implement death squads.

americans funded and trained iraqi's to kill eachother. the tribes and famililies of those killed sought retribution. da. and there starts the cycle of killing, but you already know that don't you.

So is the world (including you) responsible for any Iraqis killed by Saddam's regime?

nice try.the neocons knew they would never get permission to invade iraq from congress or the american people based on changing sadams regime. they lied for their own greed. your question is pointless. there is a forum to decide these things, rules set up thru the UN. we bypassed this. sadam was contained w/sanctions. your question is moot. you are a tool.

who called 9/11 gift from Allah

ah yes, and sharon called 9/11 great for israel, your point?

ella how can americans prevent sectarian violence without help from iraqis themselves?

why should americans demand to be the ones to prevent the very violence their presence ferments? iraqis lived together, intermarried, shared the same neighborhoods, and co existed quite well before we invaded. what on earth would give anyone an impression our departure would make matters worse?

if you want to keep bringing up sadam, go on over to 24's and read th old threads, everything has been thoroghly hashed out and answered there. i know all the hired hands love to talk about the increbible success of removing a dictator that as horrid as he was still provided for much better leadership than what is existing at present. i will not be answering any more sadam questions. go read 24's coment sections, as if you haven't already.

madtom said...

On the question of policies, this is my take. The low number of troops, specially at the beginning, the turning out of the Iraqi army, they should have been ordered back to the barracks, the Iraqi boarder patrol, they should have been left in place. Iraqis should have been given more say in the structure of their early governments. Us troops should have been deployed away from Iraq cities, patrolling mostly boarders, and as quick reaction forces to quell any big problems. Prisoner abuses. reconstruction contracts should have gone to Iraqi contractors, the US should have started buying Iraqi produces to jumpstart the economy. These is just a short list of our failures.

Then again maybe nothing would have worked if the ethnic and sectarian tensions that had build up for so long under the Iraq skin were going to explode no matter what, them all we could do was minimize. They have been waiting to get at each others throats for years, and maybe no one was going to stop them, but at least we could have kept the fight between Iraqis and kept it fair. As it is we, as a matter of policy, allowed outside influence to interfere.

Another thing is I think we misunderstood what it is the people of the greater Middle east really want. I think we are still not seeing that.

miraj said...

"So what would you do to help the Iraqi's now?"

What I'm confused about is,what your soldiers are doing here in my country? Are they helping? Why taking them away from their families when they have nothing to do here?
If Americans sitting in our country, taking control of every single ministry we have, an Iraqi government figure cannot fart without their approval, then they must definitely have a portion of the blame.
We have maniac running in the streets holding guns by the government approval, the ING and IP have more corruption than anyone would imagine, insurgency bathists are on the run doing what ever they like in this country, guns were handed to criminals and rapists and named Iraqi police.
All that and America is sitting here in our country with Bush every now then coming to this country making a surprise to our government scum bags and rice every now and then coming to scold a figure for something he did or he didn't. What a messsss.

Anonymous said...

Only an utter moron would make such a statement. This methodology is based on the laws of statistics and the law of large numbers. I know wingnuts rely on faith based mathematics, but I confess I did not believe that one would simply claim that the law of large numbers does not exist.

Polls in the US, and lots of other statistics (CPI, employment numbers etc.) are based on exactly the same techniques. This is not new mathematics, its between known for centuries.


It’s good to see there are people who are mature enough to debate in a polite and professional manner. Please kid, if you want to act immature and spew nonsense go to sesamestreet.com because this isn’t the proper forum. Yea genius, I know that most polls consist of samples, but the credibility of the poll depends on the accuracy of the sampling with regards to the characteristic of the population. Now tell me Mr. Mathematics, if you were to take a sample of 1500 people from Crawford, Texas about President Bush and then extrapolated that to the whole population of the United States, would that be very accurate? Do some research before you come to me like a 3 year old and make outrageous statements.




Maybe you should have kept quiet since there may have been some doubt as to whether you were a total ignoramus or not, but now there is none.

It is a mathematical fact that all such statistical sampling has an inherent margin of error. This is based on the Central Limit theorem. This unavoidable error is present in all sampling, which is why they give a margin of error.

What an utter idiot.


Yes genius, we all know that samplings have a margin of error, thanks for the useless lesson. A sampling error of 3.5-5% is typical in most credible polls, but this is poll is citing a range between 300,000 and 900,000!! Why don’t you calculate that sampling error for me kid? So are you telling me 85,000 Iraqis have been killed by airstrikes?? Please, address that for me to reveal your utter lack of common sense. I look forward to amusing myself with your ignorant, childish response. Maybe you will surprise me and come with a little bit more professionalism.

annie said...

They have been waiting to get at each others throats for years

really? this is not what i have heard from my iraqi friends. do you have any supporting evidence for this?

kid, if you want to act immature and spew nonsense go to sesamestreet.com because this isn’t the proper forum

who are you? you come on to kid's blog and lecture him? you're a weirdo, then you go on to saw nonsense and act immature? what a hypocrite. here is an example of your immature foolishness

if you were to take a sample of 1500 people from Crawford, Texas about President Bush and then extrapolated that to the whole population of the United States, would that be very accurate? Do some research before you come to me like a 3 year old and make outrageous statements

the survey was not taken from one little area of iraq you can compare to crawford. do some research yourself, and kid did not come to you. you came here, we are all his guests. phew!

Grim Ghost said...


Yea genius, I know that most polls consist of samples, but the credibility of the poll depends on the accuracy of the sampling with regards to the characteristic of the population. Now tell me Mr. Mathematics, if you were to take a sample of 1500 people from Crawford, Texas about President Bush and then extrapolated that to the whole population of the United States, would that be very accurate? Do some research before you come to me like a 3 year old and make outrageous statements.


Indeed, if one extrapolated from you to the population of the entire US, one would conclude that they were all cretinous innumerate liars. That would be wrong, naturally.


You haven't even read the survey, have you, liar. You know nothing whatsoever of the methodlogy used. let me explain to you, although I think a block of wood would probably be more intelligent. You are a total liar, because the way the survey was done was to use randomly selected clusters based on population data. Your analogy is therefore a total lie. I suppose you came up with it desperately in the hope that you could use it against someone even more ignorant than you.

Grim Ghost said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Grim Ghost said...


Yes genius, we all know that samplings have a margin of error, thanks for the useless lesson.


You are right, it it useless for a moron like you.


A sampling error of 3.5-5% is typical in most credible polls, but this is poll is citing a range between 300,000 and 900,000!! Why don’t you calculate that sampling error for me kid?


Sigh, you fall from depth to depth. Everytime I think you have plumbed the depths of ignorance, you fall to an even lower level. You started this with desperate lies, and now you flaunt your ignorance.

There are several different types of sampling, fool. Polls use purely random sampling (or they should -- many pollers do adjustments to make poll results match population characterstics). But anyone who did not flunk first grade math knows that there are many, many different types of sampling used in different situations. The study used cluster based sampling, a sampling technique well known to anyone who does not live in his mothers basement. The margin of error in cluster sampling is normally higher, this is inherent in the technique. I would try and explain it to you, but I think you should start with your 2s multiplication table first.

Cluster based sampling is used widely. The DOL uses it for many of its statistics. And of course, it is used frequently in Third World countries, especially in conflict situations. It was used in Kosovo, in Rwanda, in the Congo, in Angola and elsewhere in civil wars. It is used even in the absence of conflict siutations in Third World countries (it is easier and much cheaper to sample the villagers in a set of villages in India for instance, than to sample a set of random people in possibly widespread villages).

Finally, I am probably wasting my time here, putting pearls before a pig, bur your statement 300-900 is another lie. The real number is 426 - 793K. What an ignorant liar you are.

And let me add something else for the rational people (that does not include you) on this blog. What that means is that there is a 95% probability that the real value falls between 426-793K. I should also add (for your benefit, since you are such a fool), that the MoE does not mean that all subranges in that range are equally likely. Because of the bell curve, the number is far more likely to be between say (625-675, than between 426-476 (or for that matter, 743-793).

I suppose its back to faith based numbering for anon.

Anonymous said...

who are you? you come on to kid's blog and lecture him? you're a weirdo, then you go on to saw nonsense and act immature? what a hypocrite. here is an example of your immature foolishness

I wasn't referring to the kid, I was reffering to the poor excuse for a human being grim ghost. Apologies for the misunderstanding.

Anonymous said...

Indeed, if one extrapolated from you to the population of the entire US, one would conclude that they were all cretinous innumerate liars. That would be wrong, naturally.


You haven't even read the survey, have you, liar. You know nothing whatsoever of the methodlogy used. let me explain to you, although I think a block of wood would probably be more intelligent. You are a total liar, because the way the survey was done was to use randomly selected clusters based on population data. Your analogy is therefore a total lie. I suppose you came up with it desperately in the hope that you could use it against someone even more ignorant than you.


Wow I think I can have a more rational conversation with my neighbor's dogs feces than I can with a narrow minded ignorant prick like you. By the sounds of your post it seems like you have the intelligence of an ape, please rationally address my concerns before you go around spewing nonsense.

Anonymous said...

Cluster based sampling is used widely. The DOL uses it for many of its statistics. And of course, it is used frequently in Third World countries, especially in conflict situations. It was used in Kosovo, in Rwanda, in the Congo, in Angola and elsewhere in civil wars. It is used even in the absence of conflict siutations in Third World countries (it is easier and much cheaper to sample the villagers in a set of villages in India for instance, than to sample a set of random people in possibly widespread villages).
Finally, I am probably wasting my time here, putting pearls before a pig, bur your statement 300-900 is another lie. The real number is 426 - 793K. What an ignorant liar you are.

And let me add something else for the rational people (that does not include you) on this blog. What that means is that there is a 95% probability that the real value falls between 426-793K. I should also add (for your benefit, since you are such a fool), that the MoE does not mean that all subranges in that range are equally likely. Because of the bell curve, the number is far more likely to be between say (625-675, than between 426-476 (or for that matter, 743-793).

I suppose its back to faith based numbering for anon.


Ahhhhh I knew I shouldn't have invested any effort arguing sense with apes. You idiot, it wasn't my state of the number being between 300-900, it was the statement of the officials conducting the study as quoted by AP, why don't you go argue your irrationality with them regarding their study you useless scum! By the way,here's a link to the AP article were the number is quoted: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=6250034. Just goes to show that your are not interested in the facts.

As far as cluster based sampling is concerned, if you knew 2 shits about Iraq you would understand that a study which uses that method wouldn't reflect any accuracy for Iraq's situation. I'll leave you to figure out why cluster based sampling wouldn't yield accurate results in Iraq's case, which anyone with 2 ounces of intelligence would realize. I'm not counting on much given that your an idiot with an IQ that doesn't measure up to that of a sub-saharan giraffe. Also, if you do plan to respond, please bother addressing my concerns regarding the accuracy of this poll as it relates to Iraq. Again, I'm not expecting much.

Grim Ghost said...


Wow I think I can have a more rational conversation with my neighbor's dogs feces than I can with a narrow minded ignorant prick like you.


Naturally, since the two of you contain the same level of intelligence, although said feces is probably a heck of a lot less slimy than you.


By the sounds of your post it seems like you have the intelligence of an ape, please rationally address my concerns before you go around spewing nonsense.


Aha, so lets see what the ignorant an and pathetic anon says.


he Lancet results are very inaccurate as a simple reading of their method would prove. The study basically surveyed 1,849 households and extrapolated that to the whole population.


Of course, anon clearly hasn't read the method, despite the lie above. I pointed out that this method was standard in statistics and he desperately backtracked by claiming that it would not be valid to extrapolate from his great leaders home town to the US. At no point did be bother to explain how this related to the lancet study.

Then he went off on some mumbo jumbo about the MoE in polls and threw out a bogus number (300-900K) for some sort of comparison. I pointd out that the survey (which he had not read, but thats understandable, faith is all he needs used cluster based sampling and tried to explain why that method is used.

Unable to answer, knowing no mathematics, he falls back into abuse, claiming his concerns have not been addressed. His concerns will neve rbe addressed, because he knows no maths, is incapable of learning maths and would not care, his concerns are based on faith, not reality.

Grim Ghost said...


u idiot, it wasn't my state of the number being between 300-900, it was the statement of the officials conducting the study as quoted by AP,


Aha, so you haven't even read the survey, citing some sort of secondary link. What a liar you are. And how can you presume to comment on something you haven't read ?


As far as cluster based sampling is concerned, if you knew 2 shits about Iraq you would understand that a study which uses that method wouldn't reflect any accuracy for Iraq's situation. I'll leave you to figure out why cluster based sampling wouldn't yield accurate results in Iraq's case, which anyone with 2 ounces of intelligence would realize



BWAH HAH HA. You see the desperate attempt of a pathetic ignorant liar, who knows no mathematics or statistis to backtrack. Of course, he hasn't read the survey, he admitted as much earlier when he said that he relied on An AP story. Note that this liar earlier compared the MoE on a US poll to this study, further underscoring his utter ignorance.

Now, having heard the term cluster sampling for the first time in his pathetic life, he desperately seeks a comeback by saying essentially "Cluster based sampling wouldn't work in Iraq, but I can't explain why, because I really don;t know what is is, and I didnt even know the study used cluster based sampling until a fe wminuts back". So liar, you hadn't even read the survey, you didn't know they used cluster based sampling, you are so igorant that you compare a random sample to a cluster sample, you claim it would not hold for Iraq without explaining why (naturally). What loser you are !!

Cluster based sampling incidentally was used in Angola, in the Congo, in Rwanda (thats where the estimates of the number of deadths in the genocide came from), in Kosovo. One of the study's authors himself used it in Rwanda and the Congo before. It has been used in many other circumstances for much data in Third World countries and even in the US.

The reason it would not work in iraq ? Why because anon, totally ignorant of statistics, insists it CANNOT. Aha, FAITH.

Grim Ghost said...


Also, if you do plan to respond, please bother addressing my concerns regarding the accuracy of this poll as it relates to Iraq.


Lets see. Anon, who hasn't read the survey, basing his comments on an AP link and wingnut talking points, says .. what exactly ?

-- You cannot extrapolate from 1849 households. !!

Anon obviously does not believe in the central limit theorem and the law of large numbers. I pointed out that a remedial course in statistics might be ncessary.

-- Anon responds, you cannot extrapolate from Crawford Texas, to the US.

Totally irrelevant, since the Lancet did no such thing. Anon has no concerns here, just a demonstration o total stupidity.

--- Anon: Polls have much lower MoEs than this study.

Irrelevant: The study uses Cluster based sampling, a technique which has inherently higher MoEs than random sampling.

-- Anon: You cannot use cluster sampling in Iraq. I won't tell you why, because I can barely add 2 and 2 together, and I haven't read the study, but I assert that it is so.

Refutation:
Cluster based sampling has been usesdin the Congo, in Rwanda and elsewhere in serious civil war situations. And it is used all the time in many many places and countries where random sampling is infeasible or too expensive.

So lets recap: We hvae someone who hasn't read the study, who relies on an AP summary, who doesn't know the study used cluster sampling, boldly asserting that this method wouldn't work for Iraq, without even explaining why. This is hysterical.

MixMax said...

John said...

Now that Iraqi's need help the most....where is your "old europe"?

Well, Europe got involved, but when the Europe you dislike found out that the leader of their alliance is deep in a mess, they decided to pull out so they won't be burned by the heat. Why should they?


I will pose to you the same question as I did KK. Why is Kurdistan so much better off right now? Why is that an area absent of so much of the violence we see? That is a success story (so far) So why is it so hard for the rest of Iraq to follow?

People in Kurdistan are also fleeing because there are mafias there controlling the situation. You have to belong to a certain group to survive. In addition, the kurds were at each other's throats in the early 1990's, and finally, no one went to them and disbanded their millitias or interfered in their affairs like the US did in the center and south or Iraq.


They have been waiting to get at each others throats for years...

Not exactly if it was not for giving some ill-hearted souls the chance to do so. you said it: iraqis have been for centuries marrying from each other without thinking of that being a kurd or shiá or sunni or even from hell, well the last not exactly true, but I don't accept the fact that a secterian volcano was boiling in Iraq and when Saddam left this volcano just blew up.

The US presense in Iraq is need within the current circumstances,because many iraqis, including Konfused kid will have at least a hope that these forces diminish the threat caused by death squads or extremists or Saddam's ninjas. I am not going to talk on behalf of KK or anyone else, but many Iraqis want the invadors to stay, at least for the meantime, but their voice will be very loud and different when they sight someone, or some force within Iraq, by Iraqis is starting to raise up against the whole situation and for the sake of ordinary people - Am I being hypothetical? i don't think so. It is exactly the same situation when when the war ended and Saddam was ousted, there were many Iraqis happy with the outcome - mind you, they were not happy having an American soldier on their soul, for that reason they turned down Bush's expectation of welcoming the liberators with flowers in their hands. There are many Iraqis felt relieved after the ousting of Saddam, and they thanked the Americans for that, BUT HOW MANY OF THOSE SAME IRAQIS remained grateful to the U.S.? why? because of what happened afterwards, of course and any simple minded would realize that the seed of secterian conflict in Iraq began when the first governmental council established, based on the different population groups. That followed with disbanding the army! that was a big no no (as the Amercians say) because you cannot stop someone that easy from the only profession he knows... taking into the consideration how many wars iraq was involved in

In short, the U.S. IS responsible, and it is not the Iraqis who are paying the price, only,the ordinary American people are paying the price with their pockets they pay money to fund something they don't really understand or believe in, above that, they are sacraficing their beloved ones for a cause every now and then changes, with every speech their president give


Miraj said...
If Americans sitting in our country, taking control of every single ministry we have, an Iraqi government figure cannot fart without their approval, then they must definitely have a portion of the blame.

Exactly my point!
Made me wonder why the only ministry been protected fully was the ministry of Oil?? why they just surround areas like Al Sadr city and just watch people killing each other... real watching, and not hypothetically?? they are the occupiers and they can do anything to stop this chaos. Didn't they helped and ratified the new Iraqi doctrine before it has been approaved by the "government" and even put in front of the council?

madtom said...

They have been waiting to get at each others throats for years...

I have been challenged for this statement a few times. I have a tooth ach so I do not feel like digging, but I could if I wanted find evidence right here on this blog, on a post about the color of shirts.

Kid has to go to a funeral, and puts on a black shirt, walks down the street and is challenge right away. His response to his challengers, something to the effect "you don't think I'm one of those fucking assholes" Not exactly I know but I do not feel like looking for the exact quote. Is indicative of how the people he's talking too think about the Shi'a. It reminded me of a white defending himself of the charge of being a "nigger lover" here in the states back in the fifties. Now I know that Kid only used that repose to get out of a situation, but he knew it would work. And that is the point.

There are and always were these sectarians rivalries in Iraq. I know people intermarried, but so what. Right now people are having to separate. That ability to intermarried is artificial and not something that is common throughout the Arab world.

Anonymous said...

itm works for pajama media. the founder of pm is also the founder of" little green footballs" a lovely racist website in the united states just look up the site and see just who itm works for. "relgion of genocide" is one of their entries today..yes it is about islam.
i always thought this guy was a
'plant' and from this i just may be right. well if we get the vote counted here maybe you`ll see us leave soon.

annie said...

I have been challenged for this statement a few times. I have a tooth ach so I do not feel like digging,

yeah, well come back when it subsides and fill me in on your research (w/credible supporting links) cause i ain't taking your word for it. not when i have spoken (in person, looking in their eyes) to iraqis raised in iraq that tell me different. and no, the hell you can't use examples taken from a time at war. so back up your statement or STFU.

anybody heard about this?" i heard a couple days ago about an explosion that could be seen outside of baghdad and the story was, oh no nothin hear just some amp truck blew up or whatever....I am sure this was big. The blackout of coverage is insane.

"BBC story about the ammo dump fire at a forward base outside of Baghdad, and at the time it seemed pretty bad. It was confirmed that an enemy attack was the cause of this explosion. It was also confirmed that the explosions and resulting fires lasted no less than 13 straight hours, with the fires burning at least twice as long thereafter. We knew that before the blasts, this heavily protected camp and depot held more than 5,000 US troops."

sooo, msm aside it does appear from the comment section the appearance of less death is being pushed by psyops. could it be that we don't want anyone to notice HOW HORRIBLE THE WAR IS, what a failure the occupation is??? la di da,, big base explosion, no news here guys, lets all write about buiding schools and passing out candie for chidren and how this war is onlt iraqi on iraqi and oh yeah th occupation is just kinds ..... there.

righto, cover eyes ears roll over and let the fun begin.

Katrin said...

If words were weapons, this discussion might reflect some of the Iraqi situation...

Dear defamors: would you please bring some proof for your allegations? Thank you.

Kid,

my objections against this study are not meant to question the severity of Iraq's situation and the hell you and your people are going through. I do not question any of this.

It is about manipulation. In 2000 Hans von Sponeck stepped back from his UN job in Iraq:

http://www.columbia.edu/cu/news/media/00/richardGarfield/index.html

Yes, because child mortality rates had doubled and von Sponeck wanted to lift the sanctions. Three years later, the death toll of children mounted up to 500,000 children and von Sponeck published a public statement in the International Herald Tribune:

http://www.casi.org.uk/oldsites/iht/statement.html

Look at the signatories, there is a certain Mr. Bauer from Germany. In October 2005 a report on the Manipulation of the Oil-for-Food-Programme was published. They found out that more than a billion US$ had not reached the helpless Iraqis.

Here you'll find Mr. von Sponeck and his friend Bauer again:

http://www.iic-offp.org/documents/Final%20Report%2027Oct05/IIC%20Final%20Report%20-%20Chapter%20Six.pdf

What is all this to do with the actual Lancet study? Richard Garfield and a colleague had conducted the studies that told us about 500,000 dead Iraqi children because of the sanctions. The same Garfield was part of the 2004 study team:

"Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: cluster sample survey
Roberts L, Lafta R, Garfield R, Khudhairi J, Burnham G
The Lancet - Vol. 364, Issue 9448, 20 November 2004, Pages 1857-1864"

You'll find it on the Lancet website if you register (it's free). At that stage they murmered that children's mortality rate in the pre-invasion had somewhat been overestimated.

The Lancet version of the actual study doesn't mention children dying of malnutrition at all. But there is a broader version:

http://web.mit.edu/cis/pdf/Human_Cost_of_War.pdf

p20:
Nutrition-related mortality is typically concentrated in children in their first year, which includes less than 5% of the Iraqi population. Because of this demographic pattern, food insecurity has relatively little effect on overall crude mortality compared with violent deaths, which affect all age groups.

Kid, I was aware of these dying kids for years, I felt terrible because of sanctions killing kids. Now I'm learning, that a) the sanctions hadn't killed kids and b)infant death has relatively little effect on the overall situation.

I might still remain calm, if it weren't for the obvious political purpose of this study.

The children were for lifting the sanctions.

Now the dead Iraqi are for getting the US out of Iraq.

If the Iraqi population or government say: Get out of here, you're not of any help. Then ok, I'll accept. But be aware that the aim of these studies has nothing to do with the welfare of Iraqi's population. They'll leave you on your own. Or they'll make business with whomever will take over.

France and Russia had future oil contracts with Saddam, that's why they were against the invasion.

Tom Villars said...

ITM is trying to part of the solution. Their list accomplishments includes:

1) one of the first Iraqi blogs to post on a regular basis (top 5 site by traffic)
2) helped a number of blogs to raise money to defer initernet fees ($20,000+ USD raised)
3) started a politcal party and field candidtes for the national assembly, the IPDP (not sucessful)
4) started an NGO
5) lectured in the US

Omar and Mohammed are trying to improve things in Iraq and Americans tend to respect people making an effort to better themselves. Where you see them as "kissing ass" I see them making sacrifices for their country.

Katrin said...

Boutros Boutros-Ghali said any U.S.-led invasion of Iraq without specific UN authorization would violate international law.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/story/2003/03/19/boutros_iraq030319.html

Report on Programme Manipulation: Review of Secretary-General Boutros-Ghali Bank Accounts:

http://www.iic-offp.org/documents/Final%20Report%2027Oct05/IIC%20Final%20Report%20-%20Chapter%20Seven.pdf

Konfused Kid said...

John,

First of all, the last thing I would support at present is American withdrawal, but like MixMax and Miraj pointed out, I would gladly want that if a truly national force came around. The only people who want Americans to withdraw at the time being are either still high some pro-Jihad cause, which is currently nowhere in Iraq, or, plain and simple, Baathists.
THe problem with Americans is that they indirectly (and perhaps unintentionally) promoted the awareness of sect, I mentioned it earlier somewhere, that the first question of an American soldier waay back in 2003 was that whether we are Sunni or Shi'ites, which suggests that this is a trend that is dominant in the thinking of American military, just as is the friendly label 'Haji'. One of the most important decisions that refelcted that awareness is the division of the IGC into ethnic and sect componenets.


Soultion? Gee Whiz. First off, secure the capital, crack-down Sadr City, and overthrow the puppet government and install Shalash al-Iraqi as prime minister.

Tom Villars,

So? That does not automatically elevate them to sainthood. What I so emphatically question about ITM is that they are extremely biased, I respect their freedom of speech, and they often write interesting articles, but that does not change the fact that they are kissing up for someone else's wallet. Their ideology is completely non-existent between Iraqis, they know how to promote it to Americans, but it will fail when u try to present it to Iraqis, and IRAQIS are the ones caught in the crossfire, you have to win their support, too, for this to happen. and ITM's ideology will be torn to pieces anywhere in Iraq, not by militas nor by terrorists, but by the PEOPLE. These are the ones you need to reach in order to make a change, otherwise you'll be just as bad as Saddam for imposing a thing that they don't identify with.
WHat we need is a compromise between the two extremes. Someone who gives you sweet nothings but achieves nothing does not amount to anything, really.


Madtom,

Sect rivalry exists, but not as vivid as you might think between the regular Iraqi folks, there were virtually zilch differences between me and my college students, or the husband of my aunt, sect was more like a trait than anything else ; I can say however that there are people who are sectarain to the bone who have exploited the political situation and these are the real problem.

Tom Villars said...

Kid,

I don't think anyone is suggesting their saints, but they are refusing to give up and that makes them stand out.

As to the claim of them being bias, I suppose you’re correct, but I see it more as balancing the crap that has been coming from the so called "professional journalist" for years. I read Riverbend, Healing Iraq, and ITM in the hope of getting a balanced view of what is going on. Without ITM, the picture would be incomplete.

As to the brothers not representing the average Iraqi, all I can saw is thank god there are least 1 or 2 percent of Iraqis that want to live outside of the dark ages. Omar and Mohammed represent the cutting edge of social advancement in Iraq and that is why Americans are more interested in reading about them than some dumb ass who wants to show his "honor" by blowing up some random people.

Iraqis are going to have to solve this, but I don't see how withdrawing American troops is beneficial at this time. ITM is trying to prevent that. Do you really want to see the Americans leave right now?

Bruno said...

[KID] “I just don't want you to get hypnotized by ur own drugs, US used Iraq for its own agenda, and so did I, I was a full supporter of US policies all the way before April 9,2003 - although I did not believe a single word of it, but I wanted freedom and liberty, however, I disapprove of it all the way after the date.”

That to me is the voice of a real person. Way back in 2003 when Zeyad was cheering the Americans on, I could understand why, but I also felt sorry for him, because he simply didn’t realise the trouble that lay before him. Saddam was a scumbag, which is why I can understand Iraqis willing to undergo hardship to remove him. Having said that, it takes some doing to create a situation worse than Iraq pre-2003, but the US has managed, under the brilliant leadership of the orangutan-in-chief Bush.

The sick thing is, now the invasionists turn around and blame IRAQIS for the mess!

Uh, no, that’s not how it works, sorry.

Kid, your post is most appropriate and LONG overdue.

It’s about time somebody took out the garbage.

Mabrouk!

Bruno said...

[infidel john] “You and other Iraqi bloggers ganging up on them is censorship.”

You’ve got to be kidding, right?

Real censorship is what happens on the ITM forums, where posts that dispute the official line too vigorously “disappear” into the trash bin of unposted submissions. (I got tired of re-writing posts in order to get them put up there.) But then, since most of the people that post in the ITM comments are foul mouthed hypocrites that can dish out abuse but can’t take it in return, it’s not surprising.



[anonymous] “If all Iraqis were like the IraqTheModel brothers, Iraq would be the best place to live on earth.”

(For gold digging Americans and people who want to suck the marrow out of Iraq.)

You forgot the qualifier.



[luckent] “how fucking DARE you talk shit about the brothers you fucking puke.”

Hmm. Smells like another LGF / ITM troll taking advantage of the free speech that they deny to others to come here and show how dumb they are. This particular class of person cannot be reasoned with, they can only be beaten to a pulp. Sad but true.



[white rose] “I just read ITM's blog.. i didnt see a substancial argument there to prove his point.”

You don’t say! They CAN’T debunk it, which is precisely why they resort to hyperbolic language.

Bruno said...

[anonymous] “The Lancet results are very inaccurate as a simple reading of their method would prove. […] Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that a lot of innocent Iraqis haven't lost their lives, I'm just saying that the methods of this study reduce the credibility of the numbers they have came up with.”
Clearly, you have not a clue on how the statistical method works, or that the Lancet is one of the oldest and most prestigious medical journals in existence and does not publish junk, or that the results of cluster sampling has been accepted time and again as a reliable indicator of ground trends.

Well, don’t get ME wrong, but just because there are an awful lot of innumerate, statistically illiterate but highly opinionated morons floating around on the internet cesspool who venture to anonymously post their drivel without being able to dispute the methodology on a genuine basis, it doesn’t necessarily mean that you are one of them.



Annie, Grim Ghost –

That “anonymous” fellow spouting the bogus statistics ‘facts’ sounds a lot like Annie’s ol’ punchbag “Kryptonite” from 24 Step’s blog. He’s just the sort of fellow to jump in half arsed into a field that he knows NOTHING about, and then trip all over his feet trying to justify himself. The episode about the UN Charter was a hilarious example. I wonder if it’s not him. Ghost, I particularly enjoyed the exchange, thanks.

madtom said...

and no, the hell you can't use examples taken from a time at war.

And when was Iraq not at war, either with itself, or with someone else. Please provide verifiable links.

symmetry said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Steve said...

Power to you Kid. I make the figure no less than 400,000, which is a disgrace. It shows the contempt of Rumsfeld and Co that they "don't do body counts" and still rely on the clearly ridiculously low figure of around 50-60,000. Unforgiveable.

Konfused Kid said...

As to the brothers not representing the average Iraqi, all I can saw is thank god there are least 1 or 2 percent of Iraqis that want to live outside of the dark ages.

This is the major problem here, really. Nice implicit insult, Either my way or the highway, and by doing so you assume that the rest of the 98-99% simply wanna play Mortal Kombat in real life? We all want peace, tolerane and love just like you, but we want it with our CULTURE, not yours. Unles, of course ,you think Islam is the problem, which is a big error if you intend to come into a land full of Muslims and try to teach them democracy, if you need to be victorious, you MUST find a way to get the people satifised with the peace in their own culture, Iraqis and Americans are indeed together against terrorism, but only if Amercians understand that their culture is not 'superior' but 'different'.
And I did not want American withdrawal, read my reply to John....

symmetry said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
annie said...

tom making sacrifices for their country.

what on your list do you consider a sacrifice?


Dear defamors: would you please bring some proof for your allegations?

your definition of defamor? how about right here..

I have a tooth ach so I do not feel like digging,

when was Iraq not at war, either with itself, or with someone else. Please provide verifiable links.


ha! so , you want to use the secretarian violence going on now as proof iraqi's have alway been at eachothers throats. what a joke you are.

bruno, thanks for the info re Saleh al Mutlaq @24's

also, lancet , as far as i know, is the most respected medical journal in the world and has been accepted as such for a long time. i'm not sure there are any that compare w/ the same stature.
also, zogby confirms their methods, says he would back it 95%.i trust his judgement, and that of lancet. what would be the reasoning behind a purposeful false outcome? they are a medical jouranl, not a political affiliat. who's turning it political? those who want to control the info on the war. who's got the hidden agenda? who uses psyops? lancet? i don't think so....

Katrin said...

your definition of defamor? how about right here.

Defamation: denouncing people to do something without offering any proof. Believe me, I know what it is, we've had it not that long ago.

And I can directly relate my demand to you: please give a proof that anyone here in the comment's section being paid. I'm still waiting for the money 'The Italian' has collected for my opinion.

I've noticed how you change threads and blogs whenever reality doesn't suit you. Did you notice, that Konfused Kid doesn't want a withdrawal of US troops in Iraq?

You're still defending Lancet, just as Bruce. I've offered my research results with links to both of you. Doesn't astonish me, however, that you hop from one blog to the other and don't even read what I offered as information.

That information is not biased. It comes directly from the researchers, Lancet and the UN. They are self-testimonies, not false allegations by any 'neo'-cons. Do me a favour and stop this hoping on Iraqis destinies without even noticing what they themselves wish. I'm not censoring you, I'm just asking for plausible answers.

annie said...

to address controlling the info coming out of iraq...

The sustained attacks lasted for two hours, during which Camp Falcon, a major US ammunition and storage dump, was hit. The attack resulted in what one security official called “a fireworks display”. But the display wasn’t put on for entertainment. Immediate military feedback pointed to casualties.

With the IZ in blackout mode, specific troop and tanks movements were ordered, said to be a precautionary defensive measure. But there was high-level concern that the fireworks would be followed by something the US military fears – a large-scale assault on the IZ itself. Helicopters were all over the place trying to figure out what was happening and where the attacks were coming from. Tuesday in Baghdad wasn’t a good night if you needed to sleep.

The official US military line on Tuesday night was that fire had broken out at the weapons dump in southern Baghdad and that “ammunition cooking off” had caused the explosions. There were no official reports of casualties. The Iraqi interior ministry added little, saying only that neighbourhoods close to the Falcon forward operating base in Doura had been “shaken”.

What is happening in Iraq, even after three years of coalition presence, remains difficult to decipher. Reporting is limited outside the IZ and even the number of civilians who have died since the 2003 invasion is unclear.


it does appear there is a concerted effort to keep the truth from coming out. why? one would think a huge offensive near or around the green zone would be headline news in the US. could it be the PTB are keeping the truth from us for political reasons?

already over 60% of americans are against the war. how is it we have a democracy and yet the will of the people are ignored. if we had the truth, perhaps that clear majority would grow. same as if bush had not lied about the results of the NIE. now, is it any wonder they would debunk the results of the number of casualties, or continue to emphasize the 'iraqi on iraqi aspect of the violence while completely whitewashing the attacks on or by the occupation.

there is an obvious bias and element on this thread, and in discussions elsewhere by some posters to operate w/the official line, and not reality/truth. why? do you believe propaganda is what is best for us all, like george and the neocons?

annie said...

katrin, i am not qualified (nor have i claimed to be)to judge the report based on my mathmaticl abilities. therefore i have placed my trust as i stated in my previous thread on two highly regarded and respected sources. unless i am provided w/a counter argument w/greater moral authority than either of my sources (and no, you not ITM do not rate in my book)i will defer to the judgement of those i respect that have not in the past been smeared by lies(the administration)

The Lancet version of the actual study doesn't mention children dying of malnutrition at all.

kat, you already made this agrument that i debunked at 24's(12:57).

don't even read what I offered as information.

how the f do you know what i read and what i don't. we had several posts back and forth about this, so do not accuse me of ignoring you in the past, if i chose to in the future it is my perogative, as it is yours to ignore me. frankly i find your arguments repetitive and boring. you did not direct your earlier comment to me, and i chose not to respond. let someone else do it, i already did elsewhere..

my demand to you

you have no authority to demand anything of me and you know it. you also know perfectly well i have no ability to prove you are one of the bloggers our US taxes have paid millions to support. this in no way deters from my ability to speculate who those bloggers may be. you are just going to have to live w/my speculations the same way i have to live with news blackouts and media manipulation and propaganda.

I've noticed how you change threads and blogs whenever reality doesn't suit you.

what are you talking about? i believe i have left the last of several posts at 24's and haven't posted today because their was little response other than bruno's. i can frequent as many blogs as i want as can anyone. if i left blogs because reality didn't suit me i wouldn't even visit blogs because none of the reality in iraq suits me. really, you sound nuts.

Did you notice, that Konfused Kid doesn't want a withdrawal of US troops in Iraq?

of course i noticed. what are you getting at? kid and i have a difference of opinion over this issue. do you have a problem w/that?

Lynnette in Minnesota said...

Interesting discussion, for the most part.

I am a little confused though on the last comment of Kid's.

Where have we been trying to change Iraq's culture?

Political system, sure. Maybe your economic system could use an overhaul. And of course we would prefer to get people in Iraq to talk and compromise rather than make their points with AK-47's or IED's. But I don't know what you mean by culture.

Clarify please, if you can.

roger said...

Mr. K. Kid, nice blog you have here. I've read this thread with interest, and I am puzzled by your continued support for an American military presence in Iraq.

I think John inadvertantly hit it on the head when he points to the relative peace in Northern Iraq. Not coincidentally, this is one area where there is hardly any American military presence.

Was it always peaceful? No. We know warlords battled against each other in 95-97. We know thousands died. One Kurdish faction even called in Saddam Hussein.

Yet, in the end, the conflict did not flair out as it has in Iraq. Why?

I'd say that the occupation does exaccerbate sectarian violence. Not intentionally, but as a byproduct of its own often ad hoc strategies.

For instance, take the attack on Fallujah in November, 2004. That attack, I think, was a message the U.S. was sending on behalf of Allawi. The strategy was to get Allawi elected. The problem was, how to get Allawi elected when he was unpopular among the Shi'ite population, especially in the South. The American solution was to please that population by razing Fallujah.

What that did, of course, was disperse the population of Fallujah while simply alienating whatever Sunni base Allawi had. It fed, in other words, into the increasing sectarianism in Iraq.

Similarly, the alliance between Sciri and the Americans, at the moment, and the attacks on Sadr, coming in coordination with the federalism law passed in Parliament, are made possible by a freestanding American presence. Yes, in the immediate future, the withdrawal of American troops may make things worse - but it would also deny various factions the possibility of using the Americans basically as proxies for ethnic cleansing. In the struggle for power that unleashes a factional conflict, the conflict is only broadened when the sides believe that they have an ultimate tool -and even though the Americans are much too small to provide that edge, a powerful myth of strength surrounds them.

annie said...

that was supposed to read neither you nor ITM rate in my book.

to reiterate, i do not think it necessary to to question the results of that which i know nothing (survey theorums)when there are excellently qualified sources to do it for me. find some respected university ,medical team, survey group, and then i might listen.

Anonymous said...

Where have we been trying to change Iraq's culture?

"The US and British administrations want to convince the voters in their countries that the Iraqis are composed of Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds, and want to reduce the cultural structure of the Iraqi people to this insignificant image. That is why Bush is today telling his people that he is pleased because the Iraqis formed a government representing all the components of the Iraqi people, which is completely untrue. The truth is that the US Administration managed to form a government on sectarian and ethnic bases, which would pave the way for igniting a civil war and for dividing and weakening Iraq, especially since the dangers of the interference of regional countries in the Iraqi affairs are visible."

Mike said...

Kid,

Your comments are insightful. If this was is to end, we all need to be honest about the situation in Iraq. One of the reason's I began reading your blog is that it gives some first hand account of what is happening in Baghdad It is nice when you hear about political progress or other breakthroughs, but what is that worth if you and your friends can’t leave the house, or turn on the lights, 6 days a week?

Iraq in 2003 is not Iraq today. It is absurd for the U.S. to be using the same strategies and methods today that we used when the occupation began. The situation in Iraq is as far from black and white as one could imagine.

I don’t care about victory, or honorable withdrawal, or standing down as they stand up. I only care about Iraqis getting a chance to build their country. That can’t happen when young intelligent people, the future of Iraq, people like the Kid, have to direct all of their energies to safety.

Hang in there Kid.

Katrin said...

annie,

you didn't read the sources I offered. Otherwise you'd know that it's not about what I said, but what they said. I admit, they said something contradicted themselves 6 years ago. Too complex, huh?

Not one solid argument from your side, just phantasies and theories and a neighborhood son whom you knew from highschool times.

Give me one proof, one reliable source (UN for example, as I did) that there are any blogers paid by whomever. One single proof. I'm waiting. Until then, your rantings remain what they are. I know how scary it is to belong to a nation that is not appreciated all over the world. Maybe you believe that no one will hurt you, as long as you keep critizising your own country.

That's ok, as long as you don't start cheating others about your motives. The easy way you and Bruno pushed the Vietnam issue aside showed me what it is about.

I repeat what I said in another blog: as a German I'm glad that people like you didn't exist when my country's future was at stake.

annie said...

Not one solid argument from your side, just phantasies and theories and a neighborhood son whom you knew from highschool times.

you have totally lost me here. what are you referring to.

to say i have never offerd a solid argument about anything or provided numerous links is rediculous. and as for 'my side',it's beyond absurd.
as for fantasies? really, isn't this beneath you. i will not be engaged over a debate that bores me, has no merit other than you say it does, i am not intwerested in your theories, and i have alkready explained to you i will defer to others who's judgement i trust on this issue. the computations are over my head.

Give me one proof, one reliable source (UN for example, as I did) that there are any blogers paid by whomever.
CENTCOM Team Engages 'Bloggers'

"Team members said they have contacted a full spectrum of bloggers. In one instance, a blogger was writing about the opening of a water treatment plant in Iraq. The writer was presenting the information as a positive milestone for the U.S. military in Iraq, but the information was not complete. The team contacted the writer and offered information via the CENTCOM Web site, and more information was added to the blog to make the article more accurate. "

The easy way you and Bruno pushed the Vietnam issue aside showed me what it is about.

how interesting, i recall the conversation ending with me asking why we went there. why are you dragging old conversations from 24's over here to rehash them? i have no interst in discussing a war from 20 years ago. just because you initiate a subject, i am not obliged to discuss it. obviously. next time you bring up vietnam, try explaining why we went. oh yeah, to save the world from communism or some lie.. see how well that worked out? we lost, and still communism hasn't taken over the world.

i suggest you follow the links to the pdf files available from U.S. Marine Corps on Counterinsurgency here

titled "Countering Irregular Threats: A Comprehensive Approach," 14 June 2006 (3.2 MB PDF ) or the updated apprach to find out how we are using non traditional forms of warfare (like information). you can read about we strive to influence the environment thru information. it explains how marines 'need learn when to fight with weapons and when to fight with information'

there was also an article in the washington post about the department of defense and psyops infiltrating blogs as part of their operation. this and other information is available for anyone, i provoded you with "One single proof of paid bloggers." i may choose to not respond to you next time w/your slanderous lies and accusations.

btw, this is not a rant, it is just me, right back at you and your bs.
really, you are a bore and i am thru w/you for today at the least.

annie said...

here is a must read the man who sold the war

James Bamford's November 17th, 2005 profile of John Rendon, "The Man Who Sold the War," (RS988) won the 2006 National Magazine Award in the reporting category.

"Meet John Rendon, Bush's general in the propaganda war.......

casey martin said...

I have no idea who is being paid by whom but even though i don't know what you, konfused kid and other iraqi's are going through i definetely believe that the US should just get out of iraq and leave you guys in peace. I mean i'm not american, i'm Canadian but hell, that doesn't seem to make much of a difference these days because our PM is just doing what Bush over in Washington is doing and we are in Afghanistan anyway so to me it doesn't seem like we are any better.
take care.

annie said...

Subject: CENTCOM.mil: Just visited your site Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2006 11:36:07 -0400 From: "Erickson, Christopher J. SPC USA"

Spc. Chris Erickson Electronic Media Engagement Team U.S. Central Command Public Affairs erickscj@centcom.mil http://www.centcom.mil

guess who's paying the bill? current enough for you ?

annie said...

a neighborhood son whom you knew from highschool times.

it occurs to me you may be referring to my neighbor's brother filmaker james longley? director/producer of iraq in fragments although i met him while in my forties he was in college at the time. he was however the only reference i have made to my neighborhood. he also made

http://www.arabfilm.com/item/202/ gaza strip

it's awfully quiet here since i left the centcom info. what gives guys, cat got your tongue? surely you must realize this news has been distributed widely. info warfare is assumed. we are living in orwellian times.

annie said...

sorry, "gaza strip"

ella said...

Oh gosh

Roger, SCIRI is supported by Iran and if americans will get out of Iraq SCIRI will have more power than they have now.
I think that it is self evident that SCIRI is for federalism because they will get more power in Basra and the environs, and by extension so will Iran.
As for Sadr he himself told recently that he does not have power to stop some elements of Mahdi Army and I think that may be true, so at least some of the killings are done by Mahdi army. Badrists also do killings, no question about it, but if I have to speculate at least americans prevent them from doing more of it.

Casey Martin

You may be against american presence in Iraq, but Afghanistan is quite different matter. Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan were and are real.

roger said...

Ella, I don't think so. SCIRI is supported by Iran -- but its leadership includes a lot of people with very neo-liberal views, including the Iraqi Vice President. Hence, the attraction to both Iran and the U.S.

On the other hand, the growth of the power of SCIRI has been under the occupation. The reason is pretty obvious. To go back, for a second, to Northern Iraq -- when the U.S. invaded, it did not disband the peshmerga. Consequently, there was a continuous strong force for order in Northern Iraq. Elsewhere, the U.S. quickly disbanded any kind of order, creating a vacuum that remains to this day, into which various militia have rushed. So the argument seems to be, the U.S. is needed now because of the way the U.S. destroyed any counterweight to a chaos of militias at the beginning of the occupation.

Myself, I don't think the U.S. will ever leave, following that logic. Instead, the various battles between the militias will simply be spread out, with the U.S. now on this side, now on that one. At the same time, the U.S. gives no room for the spontaneous creation of any native Iraqi order that it considers not in America's interest. But that interest is divergent from Iraq's, and has to be.

So, the longer the U.S. stays in, the more the chaos spreads, the more negotiations to stop it are repressed by the U.S.

This is why a timed withdrawal is best for all sides.

madtom said...

ha! so , you want to use the secretarian violence going on now as proof iraqi's have alway been at eachothers throats. what a joke you are.

Your words not mine, if you don't want to answer the question, You do not have to. But do not try to put words in my mouth in place of a real answer

madtom said...

I don't see anything wrong with CENTCOM trying to get their side of the story out. There is nothing nefarious in that e-mail, inviting people to use their site as a resource, or asking for a link back to their site.

You think that's how Jordan does it?

An Italian. said...

@ ‘katrin’, Lincoln Group, 12:14 PM, 9:26 PM.

[‘katrin’] Dear defamors: would you please bring some proof for your allegations? Thank you.

The best answers have already been given (complete with links) by valiant Annie.

Now, for all rational people, there’s the mystery, the $1 million question:

How is it that Iraqi blogs have been around for three years, and a ‘katrin’ from Germany never showed up as a commentator?

And how is it that ‘katrin’ has shown up only in these past few weeks (and ‘ella’ the Polish from Canada only in the past few months), both on many Iraqi blogs, precisely at a moment when even many of the usual pro-war American commentators have had second thoughts, and when the popularity of the demented US adventure in Iraq is at its lowest ever?

And this generic ‘German’ ‘katrin’ comes up proclaiming her undying ‘gratitude’ to the US, and how nice it is to be occupied by them, and slanders ‘The Lancet’ and its report (read her delirious posts at ‘Iraq The Minion’, Kiddo), and so on and so forth?

And how is it that the ‘German’ proclaims at ITM that she is from West Germany, and here, instead, she implies that she is from East Germany instead (“Believe me, I know what it is, we've had it not that long ago.”) ?

Now, OK I know that the Kid is an innocent, but to anybody who believes that this ‘katrin’ is a genuine commentator I have to reveal a great secret… I happen to own the Ponte dei Sospiri in Venice (ye know, the famous ‘Bridge of Sighs’)… and if you want, I could sell it to you! (an’cheap, as well!).

Oh, I know, in Germany (and in Canada) it is not illegal to do pro-US PR for a fee; and in Germany prostitution is not illegal, either.
But you two, ‘katrin’ & ‘ella’, make me puke all the same.

Enough said.


PS: ‘katrin’, keep giving head ,)

Scott from Oregon said...

Kid. Good to see you stirring the pot. It is good for people to think outside of themselves and see a bigger world.

Tom Villars said...

annie asked what sacrifices ITM was making.

Anytime someone does charity work it's a sacrifice, but in Iraq there is the added element of danger. Since the ITM brothers help lead an NGO, their efforts makes them targets for kidnapping and/or assignation.

Omar and Mohammed have visited the US and because of one meeting in particular, they could become a target for some anti-American nutcase. Also an idiotic NY Times reporter , Sarah Boxer, did an article on them that lead with the question of whether or not they might be CIA agents. Stupidity like that can get someone killed and unfortunately I don’t mean the so called “journalist.”

All three brothers helped set up a political party and I think it goes with out saying that Iraqi politics are anything but safe.

So far all three brothers have decided to stay in Iraq and with things as bad as they are their efforts qualify as sacrifices in my book.

Tom Villars said...

Back to the original topic of the post which was ITM's ridicule of the Lancet medical journal's body count, even the anti Iraq war site IraqBodyCount.org is disputing the number. Here is the link:

I guess I could provide more evidence, but I get the feeling anyone still believing in the 650K figure is about as likely to be convinced they are wrong as Jerry Farewell is to be convinced evolution is correct.

Tom Villars said...

Kid said, "...so they choose to go all the way, working up a good chunk of money with all the revenue from the ads until they can safely call it quits and retire in some nice Friends of Democracy-compatible country, spending all their well-earnt money on hoes and booze."

I know something about "all the reveune from the ads" that ITM is getting and it isn't nearly enough to retire on. When I was handling their books, ad revenue was never more than $100 USD per month. To suggest the brothers are doing all this for money is just silly.

annie said...

if you don't want to answer the question, You do not have to.

excuse me? it is me who is evading. it is you. here's how this all started (notice the strawman in the first bold print, this is the way he wishes it had been to somehow rationalize the crime of the illegal invasion)

you maybe nothing would have worked if the ethnic and sectarian tensions that had build up for so long under the Iraq skin were going to explode no matter what, them all we could do was minimize. They have been waiting to get at each others throats for years,

i copied and pasted the 2nd part in bold and commented really? this is not what i have heard from my iraqi friends. do you have any supporting evidence for this?
you have yet to back up your claim.here's what you said

I have been challenged for this statement a few times. I have a tooth ach so I do not feel like digging,

here's me.....yeah, well come back when it subsides and fill me in on your research (w/credible supporting links) cause i ain't taking your word for it.




now you are trying to divert attention away from the POINT of your ludicrous assertions.

now what it is you want me to do? prove to you why you cannot use evidence about secretarian violence after the invasion to prove what didn't exist before the invasion ? and you are now giving me permission to not answer your question!!!

it is not me pushing stupid theories based on fabicated claims that i cannot document! can you find an iraqi that will agree w/you? anyone who ever lived in badhdad. already kid has said his piece, and it in know way aligned w/you theory.

but i am not going to say to you 'you don't have to answer' i think you should either back up your claim, or admit your theory has no supporting evidence.

and if you don't we will know you are a coward. hiding behind a toothache, what a joke.

annie said...

sorry, it is not me who is evading.

annie said...

I don't see anything wrong with CENTCOM trying to get their side of the story out.

side of the story? you mean like fox news "balances". fyi, the job of a soldier is to defense, not offense. not push propaganda. how about the truth, the good, the bad, and the ugly. how bout telling the american people what happened last wednesday night outside baghdad?

what do you think info warfare is? psyops? there is nothing wrong about introducing yourself as a soldier and suggesting someone go to a site. nor did i ever say it was. the challenge was to provide proof bloggers were paid by US taxs. i satisfied that challenge, easily.

Katrin said...

Tom,

your link to Sarah Boxers article doesn't work :-(

Thx for linking IBC:
Additionally, claims that the two Lancet studies confirm each other's estimates are overstated. Both the violent and non-violent post-invasion death estimates are actually quite different in the two studies.

My point: they contradict themselves and still defend their method.

Annie,
I've gone through all your Centcom information and didn't find even a hint about anyone being paid. You want me to guess: the only one who's actually drawing the attention towards Centcom is you, no? So if you're telling me that they pay you, I'll take it as a proof.

My tongue is sleeping while you declare me a bore. There is a time difference of nine hours between Seattle and Germany.

Italian:
"we've had it here" refers to Blockwarts not Stasi. If you prefer Stasi, though, no objections. Just don't move my generic existence to the East.

If there's an unwritten law about how long someone has to be present in the blogosphere before commenting or about a limitation of blogs allowed to visit, please tell me. I'll be glad to learn how I can make my presence visible without commenting.

Finally back to the subject: I think what bothers both of you is that I don't object to the American occupation of my country. Your anti-imperialistic approach would have left our destinies, I mean ellas, mine and the ITM brothers as well as Konfused Kids, in the hands of despots. Don't you think people like us have a right to the freedom you have?

Tom Villars said...

Oops, try this link for Sarah Boxer's article: Pro-American Iraqi Blog Provokes Intrigue and Vitriol

Little Penguin said...

It's good to see that Iraqi conscience is as formidable as ever.

Well-said, Kid.

annie said...

I've gone through all your Centcom information and didn't find even a hint about anyone being paid.

centcom is run out of the US dept of defense. they are government workers, paid by US taxs. these aren't the only links. the airforce has bloggers too.
really, do you think these guys work for free?

WHY WE INVADED (but we all know that already

Bush's Petro-Cartel Almost Has Iraq's Oil

The Iraqi government faces a December deadline, imposed by the world's wealthiest countries, to complete its final oil law. Industry analysts expect that the result will be a radical departure from the laws governing the country's oil-rich neighbors, giving foreign multinationals a much higher rate of return than with other major oil producers and locking in their control over what George Bush called Iraq's "patrimony" for decades, regardless of what kind of policies future elected governments might want to pursue.

big clip (go to the link, do not pass this article)

Herbert Docena, a researcher with the NGO Focus on the Global South, wrote that an early draft of the constitution negotiated by Iraqis envisioned a "Scandinavian-style welfare system in the Arabian desert, with Iraq's vast oil wealth to be spent upholding every Iraqi's right to education, health care, housing, and other social services." "Social justice," the draft declared, "is the basis of building society."

What happened between that earlier draft and the constitution that Iraqis would eventually ratify? According to Docena:

While [U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Zalmay] Khalilzad and his team of U.S. and British diplomats were all over the scene, some members of Iraq's constitutional committee were reduced to bystanders. One Shiite member grumbled, "We haven't played much of a role in drafting the constitution. We feel that we have been neglected." A Sunni negotiator concluded: "This constitution was cooked up in an American kitchen not an Iraqi one."

With a constitution cooked up in D.C., the stage was set for foreign multinationals to assume effective control of as much as 87 percent of Iraq's oil, according to projections by the Oil Ministry. If PSAs become the law of the land -- and there are other contractual arrangements that would allow private companies to invest in the sector without giving them the same degree of control or such usurious profits -- the war-torn country stands to lose up to 194 billion vitally important dollars in revenue on just the first 12 fields developed, according to a conservative estimate by Platform (the estimate assumes oil at $40 per barrel; at this writing it stands at more than $59). That's more than six times the country's annual budget.

To complete the rip-off, the occupying coalition would have to crush Iraqi resistance, make sure it had friendly people in the right places in Iraq's emerging elite and lock the new Iraqi government onto a path that would lead to the Big Four's desired outcome.


See part two tomorrow.

annie said...

erickscj@centcom.mil

hey kat. just email him and ask him if the military pays it's soldiers or if they work for free. then ask him where the money comes from. my pocket.

annie said...

maybe centcom (all the news you don't need to know)could fill us in on this

Based on stories last month in Time magazine and The Nation, it appears that the U.S.S. Eisenhower Strike Group left Norfolk, Virginia, on Oct. 1 and will reach the shores of Iran at the Strait of Hormuz this Saturday, Oct. 21 — 17 days before the mid-term elections.

First word of the Eisenhower’s deployment to the Persian Gulf came from angry Navy officers, who contacted military critics of the Iraq war and complained that they were being sent to attack Iran without any order from the Congress.

Colonel Gardiner, who has taught military strategy at the National War College, says that the carrier deployment and a scheduled Persian Gulf arrival date of October 21 is “very important evidence” of war planning. He says, “I know that some naval forces have already received ‘prepare to deploy orders’ [PTDOs], which have set the date for being ready to go as October 1. Given that it would take about from October 2 to October 21 to get those forces to the Gulf region, that looks about like the date” of any possible military action against Iran. (A PTDO means that all crews should be at their stations, and ships and planes should be ready to go, by a certain date–in this case, reportedly, October 1.)

Tom Villars said...

annie reported, "First word of the Eisenhower’s deployment to the Persian Gulf came from angry Navy officers, who contacted military critics of the Iraq war and complained that they were being sent to attack Iran without any order from the Congress."

Uhhh, why send an aircraft carrier when the US has plenty of air strike assets already in Iraq? annie, I think someone is pulling your leg.

But if you honestly think Bush is going to order an attack on Iran in the next three weeks, you are suffering from a sever case of BDS.

jizzmonkey said...

Kid, I think you are overreacting…That’s the beauty of freedom of speech. A good friend of mine would always tell me “ Fix the things you can..and don’t worry about the things you can’t”..relax dude, it was JUST a rant..so is yours.

Jon in Maryland said...

Interesting, angry post Kid. But, as Jizzmonkey just said, Omar's was just a rant. As a possible explanation, why not give him the benefit of the doubt. Maybe the ITM brothers are so wrapped up in their one-sided view of the American "enterprise" in Iraq that any view from a Western source, especially a generally well-credentialed one, that severely shakes their general position that everything is hunky-dory with only a few minor setbacks, is so disturbing and frightening that they feel compelled to lash out in exaggerated, irrational anger. And maybe they're afraid that broad acceptance in the U.S. of the validity of the study will lead to a precipitate U.S withdrawal. I, on the other hand, can't fathom why Johns Hopkins University professors would have a particular axe to grind.


John ("just as we do in 10's of other nations")

Are you really an American soldier in Iraq? I would have said "dozens" rather than tens, but maybe you're from some quaint little backwater where they actually do use the latter expression. I was under the impression it was either British or perhaps Australian or New Zealand usage, or maybe even by those for whom English isn't their first language.

annie said...

why send an aircraft carrier when the US has plenty of air strike assets already in Iraq

i don't know, you tell me. try googling USS eisenhower/iran. it's not exactly a secret.

"Elsewhere, the Bush-Cheney White House and Donald Rumsfeld’s Pentagon have ordered a broadening of US military operations in the Middle East. Led by the Nimitz class nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, USS Eisenhower, a strike force bristling with Tomahawk missiles is headed to the Persian Gulf to take up a position to launch an aerial “shock and awe” campaign against Iran. The Prepare To Deploy Orders (PTDO) issued to the USS Eisenhower led Time magazine to call public attention to American moves in apparent preparation for imminent war with Iran. The USS Eisenhower is scheduled to arrive in the Persian Gulf on the 21st of October, just slightly over two weeks before the ominous midterm elections on the 7th of November."

yikes


2. Khamenei’s aides leaked word that his decision to hold the sermon of Oct. 13 was prompted by his discovery that the USS Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group was heading for the Persian Gulf and would be deployed in operational mode opposite Iran’s shores by Oct. 21.

"Meanwhile several press outlets -- including Time and The Nation -- are reporting that troops and aircraft carriers are massing near the Iran border. Yesterday, the USS Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group left port in Norfolk for the Persian Gulf. The group includes the USS Anzio, the guided-missile destroyers USS Ramage and USS Mason and the attack sub USS Newport News.

Last month, Time reports, the navy issued two orders: The first message: a "Prepare to Deploy" order was sent through naval communications channels to a submarine, an Aegis-class cruiser, two minesweepers and two mine hunters. The second request, from the Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), asked for an analysis of how a blockade of two Iranian oil ports on the Persian Gulf would work. "

if you honestly think Bush is going to order an attack on Iran in the next three weeks

did i say that? nah, and even if he does, by the time it gets watered down by infowarfare it's gonna look like they attacked us! i think it was garner who said " “very important evidence” of war planning. He says, “I know that some naval forces have already received ‘prepare to deploy orders’", not me.

so, elections comin up, think we will have an october surprise? maybe i'll head on over to centcom and read about building schools and all the other good things our soldiers are doing. if i'm paranoid, at least i'm not alone.

Lynnette in Minnesota said...

Anonymous/Annie,

I have no desire to hold a conversation with you. My question was addressed to the Kid. If he chooses to answer me, fine. It not, I will write it off as his blowing smoke.

madtom said...

here's me.....yeah, well come back when it subsides and fill me in on your research (w/credible supporting links) cause i ain't taking your word for it.

Reposted for annie because she's claiming to have missed it the first time. I wonder if she has ever read this blog before?

Kid has to go to a funeral, and puts on a black shirt, walks down the street and is challenge right away. His response to his challengers, something to the effect "you don't think I'm one of those fucking assholes" Not exactly I know but I do not feel like looking for the exact quote. Is indicative of how the people he's talking too think about the Shi'a. It reminded me of a white defending himself of the charge of being a "nigger lover" here in the states back in the fifties. Now I know that Kid only used that repose to get out of a situation, but he knew it would work. And that is the point.

Now that's all cleared up you can answer the question if you like, or not.

Katrin said...

Tom,

thx a lot. This article demonstrates the lack of responsibility in many MSM nowadays.

Ali's brothers had met Bush and in Iraq you can get killed for it. So Ali quit because he is afraid. He clearly states, he still shares their opinions. And now she cites him being critical of US administration. What a surprise! Really, didn't it pop up in her mind that he is not free to voice his true opinion anymore? He's afraid and for very obvious reasons.

And she knows that the two brothers are risking their lives, she writes it. By learning this (she's been online for Iraq for even a month!) she fuels some more danger to the brothers' lives by mentioning all the conspiracy theories. That are backed up by nothing, mere fantasies and unprooved allegations.

Sometimes it seems to me that some people consider Iraq as an entertaining TV show and don't understand, that there are real people suffering. That their future's at stake.

Annie,
I won't mail this guy for obvious reasons. He's not allowed to tell me whether you're on their payroll or not. Just as you felt free to claim that I'm being payed, I'll do the same with you. You're sending everyone here to Centcom, you're advertising for a movie, so you get payed for what you write. You know damn well I can't proof it, but it doesn't matter.

Iran:
Any comment about the actual and future situation of Irani people? I mean people, not you, nor your elections nor oil. If you don't like the Irani people, let's take the Iraqi, the Lebanese, even the Europeans. Any idea, what would happen to them if we let Achmadinedschad have his way? Annie, these offers are exclusively for you.

annie said...

that is not cleared up one little itty bitty bit. i already responded to this and you well know it. it is disingenious to think you can back up a claim 'waiting for years' on tensions that exist in the middle of civil unrest. certainly if your claim is true or the general public and not just certain isolated factions you could find some evidence.

its stupid to think i didn't acknowledge this earlier because your 'question' was in response to my identical response last time.

what if i said to you jews and christians have bee wanting to get to eachothers throats for years?!? well, some of them maybe but that hardly speaks for the majority. if you want to lay down w/your argument that kids post is the most defining evidence of your 'theory' so be it. i think that speaks for itself. you can spin reality, but you can't change it. talking points will not erase the collective memories of iraqi's. psyops, special forces, death squads, spys, turncoats, greedy bastards, neocons,zionists, and bring it on's, all these covert activities to further unrest are neither ignored or unacknowledged by iraqi's, americans, and the global majority. take your orwellian double speak and shove it.

coward

annie said...

that was in response to madmad

annie said...

Any comment about the actual and future situation of Irani people?

no

any comment about the USS eisenhower or the reports of deployment?

katrin, they blog, i proved it, get over yourself.

Konfused Kid said...

Lynette

By culture, I didn't mean arts or calligraphy, I meant Islam if taken as an opponent to Western Democracy.

Katrin said...

Katrin:Any comment about the actual and future situation of Irani people?

Annie: no

Katrin: So what is your point?

Tom Villars said...

When asked about the USS Eisenhower's recent deployment, annie said, "i don't know, you tell me. try googling USS eisenhower/iran. it's not exactly a secret."

CVN69 (USS Dwight D. Eisenhower) set sail from its home port on Oct 3rd and is currently station near Naples, Italy. There is nothing special about this deployment and the US almost always has carrier assets in the Med and Red Sea.

But if you really think the US will conduct an air strike on Iran before the Nov elections, there is a place you can put your money where your mouth is. Intrade has a futures contract for an overt air strike by the US or Israel to take place by Dec 31, 2006. It's trading around a 7% chance the attach will take place. Follow this link for details.

Lynnette in Minnesota said...

...I meant Islam if taken as an opponent to Western Democracy.

Ahh, I see.

Yes, everything seems to be muddled. There are people out there who feel that Islam as a religion is too "fanatical" to coexist with Western Democracy. As in the Taliban interpretation of Islam. I think there was someone posting here before who fit that description. Forget his name now. In the States we have quite a few Muslim's. They seem to coexist just fine with our political system.

We are having a bit of a problem with taxi drivers here in Minnesota, though, who are refusing fares that are carrying liquor in their baggage. They've worked out some kind of system to make this known to potential passengers. But it is kind of a sore spot. There are those who feel that the taxi drivers are infringing on peoples right to carry liquor if they want. And there are those who are supporting it as a freedom of religion thing.

I think that people really have to learn tolerance of others, whatever religion they are. That goes along with the feeling that people of any religion don't have the right to impose their religious practices on others. Example being: If a woman wants to wear hijab because of her beliefs, fine. But you don't have the right to make me wear it. Or vise versa.

annie said...

what is my point? what is anyones point in reading current events?

what is my point in pointing out the USS Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group was heading for the Persian Gulf and people are writing about it? the israelis, the iranians, garner, time magazine?

what a weird question. there has been buzz all over the news for the last 6 months about whether iran ability to make a WMD is a current threat to us (sound familiar),
we have military stationed in iraq w/shites running the gov't who have militias afiliated funded and supported by iran who just may react (against US). not everyone, including some generals and think tankers, agree w/tom that someone is pulling legs about an invasion, the area (entire ME)could erupt. israel has 100's of nukes and has stated clearly they encourage an american invasion of iran, bush has said he is not taking any (including nukes)options off the table, i am certainly not alone in thinking he is not the sharpest tack in the stack, and why should we not think of the consequences of an invasion? one that may include nuking the beejesus out of iran? and you ask me what the friggin point is.

hello. nobody sends fleets to the gulf just for the thrill of it. to answer a question about the future of the iranian people largly depends on their circumstance. could be very similar to asking about the future of the iraqi people back in 02, and look how swimmingly that turned out. let's see, about iranian people, would that be before, or after we bomb them?

you're the mouthpiece of the neocon agenda, perhaps it is me who should be asking you about the iranian people?

I have no desire to hold a conversation with you.

the feeling is quite mutual lynn. i wasn't posting that excellent example of howwe are messing w/iraqi's culture to hold a conversation w/you. i posted it because your question reminded me of the excellent article (all of it, really) titled "Our Problem with America" by Saleh al-Mutlaq, leader of the Iraqi National Dialogue Front, the fifth largest political list in Iraqi National Assembly and i thought it might be of interst to someone reading this thread, including kid.

thank you so much for jogging my recollection to this fine piece of writing. btw, in the future, if you want to avoid any of my postings, including any response i may have to you, just skip them. i can however, and i will comment on any or all of your comments as i see fit until such time as the host of this blog (whom i am ever so grateful) requests my silence.
only then will i respectfully lurk w/out commenting.

back to iran, here is one thinktank assessment of the situation.

annie said...

We are having a bit of a problem with taxi drivers here in Minnesota, though, who are refusing fares that are carrying liquor in their baggage.

we are also having a bit of a problem w/some extreme rightwing fundie christians pharmacists in this country, who are refusing to sell birth control to their customers.

I think that people really have to learn tolerance of others, whatever religion they are.

me too!

Lynnette in Minnesota said...

Annie dear, I'm pro-choice. Which also means I approve of birth control. Just in case that was meant as a zing.

And I still don't feel like having a conversation with you.

Anonymous said...

Konfused Kid,

Maybe instead of attacking people who genuinely DO want peace on all sides, you should do some thinking about what it is about other Iraqis (and Iranians, Syrians, etc., that are in the country) that makes them so disrespectful of human life? It's not the Americans going on killing sprees, butchering families.

I suppose you'd prefer Americans leave. Well, if they did, you'd have corrupt Iraqi police/military protecting you, wouldn't you? You know, those same ones that are doing a bit of that killing in the name of their brand of Islam?

What about Sadr's thugs? What about the Baathists/Saddamists? They aren't going anywhere, and THEY are killing Iraqis--and not just because Americans are there.

So Saddam's not so bad, huh? Laughable. I could say that too, because I wasn't one of his victims either. But then I'd have to be a selfish monster to not care about the victims.

Whether you want to see it or not, Saddam's regime was not in American interests. It was NOT only about "liberating Iraq," nor was it sold that way. There were--and are--many reasons to eject Saddam. It's not Americans' fault that Iraqis and the foreign Islamists (terrorists!) refuse to behave like civilized human beings, allowing others to live in a peaceful democracy. It's not like terrorism only exists in Iraq, but it sure seems to be a problem where ever there's an ideological battle over Islam.

Funny thing--the Kurds don't seem to be having the problems that exist elsewhere in Iraq (or elsewhere in the Muslim world, for that matter), despite the presence of coalition forces.

An Italian. said...

Dear Kid,

this latest 'anonymous' (2:27 AM) is the notorious 'kryptonite' who posts at 24 (and used to post at Treasure of Baghdad, before he put moderation of comments on).

The idiot animal writes: "It's not the Americans going on killing sprees, butchering families".

Oh, they don't?
And what about the aerial bombings of Iraq (1991-2006)?
And what about the wedding party (2005)?
And what about Haditha?
And what about Ishaqi?
And what about the child-raping, murderous bastards among the 'heroic' (LOL! the yellow cowards) American soldiers?

Not even worth an answer.

beachmom1 said...

Okay, Kid -- AWESOME post. ITM has gotten absolutely out of control. I actually was more offended by ITM's post saying the biggest mistake America made was not invading EVERY COUNTRY in the Middle East and regime changing them all. So I commented and got absolutely attacked from a million angles from the most nasty bunch of right wing fascist Americans I have ever encountered. Not only is that site offensive to Iraqis, it's offensive to Americans, too -- 60% of whom think the invasion of Iraq was a mistake. We just want the truth, you know, not to be fed propaganda -- I mean, if we want propaganda, we can just listen to a White House press conference or Fox News.

What is even more significant about your post, is that you have crossed a new threshold in the Iraqi blogosphere that I haven't seen before. Zeyad talked about this when he met up with bloggers in Jordan -- about how you guys don't link to each other and disagree. You have done that here, and I think a big kudos is owed to you.

annie said...

no lynn, it wasn't meant as a zing. i don't consider you a religious fanatic.
i specifically chose a religious instead of political example. it was just meant to highlight that many in our culture have issues w/our own version of fanatics too. the same way when we look at islam and recognize there are so many variables, the same here. we are deeply divided within our own culture. altho we aren't killing eachother, yet.
altho we aren't killing eachother, yet.

but today we killed habeas corpus which strips any moral authority we used to think we had.

"The president can now, with the approval of Congress, indefinitely hold people without charge, take away protections against horrific abuse, put people on trial based on hearsay evidence, authorize trials that can sentence people to death based on testimony literally beaten out of witnesses, and slam shut the courthouse door for habeas petitions"



"The government will make use of these powers only insofar as they are essential for carrying out vitally necessary measures...The number of cases in which an internal necessity exists for having recourse to such a law is in itself a limited one."


what do you think of that last paragraph? ring a bell? it's hard for any society having fanatics in power.

Tom Villars said...

annie said, "hello. nobody sends fleets to the gulf just for the thrill of it."

Uhh, US carrier routinely patrol trouble spots. Currently CVN 65 (USS Enterprise) is patrolling the Med and for about two months the Eisenhower and Enterprise will have overlapping areas. Before that the Roosevelt and Truman were in the Med and before that Kennedy and Washington were on patrol.

Sorry but the idea the current deployment of the Eisenhower is somehow special, is nothing more than election year politics.

Tom Villars said...

BeachMom1 said, "ITM has gotten absolutely out of control. I actually was more offended by ITM's post saying the biggest mistake America made was not invading EVERY COUNTRY in the Middle East and regime changing them all."

Mohammed only mentioned Iran and Syria, not every country in the Middle East. I will agree that Mohammed's game plan was over the top, but he does have a point. His country is being asymmetrically attacked by Iran and Syria and it is only natural to want to push back.

Matt said...

Hey Kid, I sent you an e-mail a while back. I was just wondering if you got it. See you 'round!

ella said...

italian/annie

And how is it that ‘katrin’ has shown up only in these past few weeks (and ‘ella’ the Polish from Canada only in the past few months), both on many Iraqi blogs, precisely at a moment when even many of the usual pro-war American commentators have had second thoughts, and when the popularity of the demented US adventure in Iraq is at its lowest ever?
logical fallacy
argumentum ad hominem involves replying to an argument or assertion by attacking the person presenting the argument or assertion rather than the argument itself.

I advise you: go and study instead of using spurious arguments, it will do you good.

beachmom1

I assume that you would like everybody to have the same view on all matters? You mean like everybody would like Mr X and hate Mr Y? That's not what democracy means.
Also have you noticed that Kid do not necessarily wants americans to leave right now, because if americans will do that he just may get to live under Iraqi taliban.

Anonymous said...

An Italian. said...
Dear Kid,

this latest 'anonymous' (2:27 AM) is the notorious 'kryptonite' who posts at 24 (and used to post at Treasure of Baghdad, before he put moderation of comments on).

The idiot animal writes: "It's not the Americans going on killing sprees, butchering families".

Oh, they don't?
And what about the aerial bombings of Iraq (1991-2006)?
And what about the wedding party (2005)?
And what about Haditha?
And what about Ishaqi?
And what about the child-raping, murderous bastards among the 'heroic' (LOL! the yellow cowards) American soldiers?

Not even worth an answer.


With the same outrage why wouldn't you list the hundreds of militant versus Iraqi butchering sprees in the news reports.

Jenny said...

I suppose it's hardly worth saying anything about luckent47 but anyone who cannot make a statement without the word fuck being inserted at least once every sentence, has no business preaching any kind of morality.
But then, his entries are no more than the gratuis whine 'We are dying for you and look what you do with it'. Well love, the point is that there wasn't an Iraqi in Iraq who asked for your involvement in the first place, whatever desperate measures are brought to life to make it seem differently. 'I was only trying to hee-eeelp, why don't you appreeciaaate it' is already a killer in one-on-one relationships, let alone between whole nations. Grow up!
Sort out your own country. Deal with its oil addiction! Deal with it's voting machines. Deal with foreign (ahem) forces sneaking around with your agenda. Deal with your mentality that the US is 'the world'. Deal with your own problems, and till that time, in your own eloquent words, fuck off!

An Italian. said...

@ 'anonymous' 10:10.

"With the same outrage why wouldn't you list the hundreds of militant versus Iraqi butchering sprees in the news reports."

I did, especially at Zeyad's blog, and it's on record; and this before ANY of you simian Ahmehwican warmongers noticed that the 'purple-fingered' militias you put in power were committing horrors in US-'liberated' Ey-rak...

beachmom1 said...

To Ella,

You said:

I assume that you would like everybody to have the same view on all matters? You mean like everybody would like Mr X and hate Mr Y? That's not what democracy means.

Also have you noticed that Kid do not necessarily wants americans to leave right now, because if americans will do that he just may get to live under Iraqi taliban.


I'm glad you asked, Ella. First of all, I do like discussing issues with people I disagree with. My point about ITM is that the level of debate there is so low. I stated my opinion, and people swore at me, called me names, etc. They didn't seem to want to defend Mohammed's post and explain why my opinion was wrong in a civilized manner. And they do come across as fascists (I do not use that word lightly). One even advocated the killing of all Sunni males, so I stand by my assessment of the people who post there.

Also, I'm a Democrat. I could actually spend all day on liberal blogs and fight nonstop!! We don't even need people on the Right to have extremely passionate fights; it's the nature of the party (and, in my view, a good thing).

Yes, I am very well aware that the Kid doesn't want the Americans to leave. Who could blame him when the Iraqi national army and police aren't there to protect him; sometimes, they're even there to harm him. The Kid is being honest, and that is why I read his blog -- he doesn't hold back.

I support the Kerry/Feingold amendment -- it is predicated on the notion that the problems in Iraq cannot be solved militarily, but must be solved politically. So first what needs to happen is a Dayton like Summit that brings all the parties together as well as all the countries in the Middle East to hash out an agreement. This summit idea authored by Sen. Kerry was actually passed in the most recent Defense bill in the Senate on a bipartisan basis, so I don't think it's a left wing idea, merely a common sense idea. I also think that the Iraqis need to be put on notice that American troops are going to leave, and give a deadline (which WILL be flexible) for when that will happen. I just feel like the Iraqi government is taking its old sweet time, because they know the U.S. military is protecting them in the Green Zone, and doing so much of the dangerous work for them. This is not healthy for a sovereign nation. Finally, our forces are going to remain in the region (Kuwait, perhaps) indefinitely because we will need to continue to fight al Qaeda, so that what happened in Afghanistan will not happen in Iraq (i.e. training campas, a base to launch attacks, etc.). This is different from occupying the country and having our guys get blown up by IEDs every day, when air and special forces could fight al Qaeda with less casualties and hopefully less resentment from the local populations (good example was when they killed Zarqawi -- special forces from outside the country did that job). Some forces will also need to remain to train Iraqi forces.

I agree with you wholeheartedly that it is important to read viewpoints different from one's own. Life is never simple, especially regarding a country like Iraq. I don't expect you to agree with me, but to just read, and challenge your own view just like I do nearly every day.

beachmom1 said...

Tom Villars,

You said:

Mohammed only mentioned Iran and Syria, not every country in the Middle East. I will agree that Mohammed's game plan was over the top, but he does have a point. His country is being asymmetrically attacked by Iran and Syria and it is only natural to want to push back.



You are correct that he didn't mention other countries, but if you continue to read, he left the door open that it could mean ANY country that is not democratic:

Some might ask…Do we have to do all of this? Go through all these battles and change those regimes?
My answer is Yes. For one reason; terrorists and terror-supporting regimes have chosen war and America, and the values it stands for, is the target and they will not stop shooting at America until they are dead or arrested.


Perhaps, it was merely a grammatical error, but "all these battles" infers more than two. Also, ocnsidering a recent entry by one of the brothers that he's rather live in violent Iraq than Egypt because he felt he had more freedom of speech in Iraq, it seems to me, that he wants us to democratize every country in the M.E., which is the stated goal of the neoconservative agenda.

Yes, Iran and Syria are problems; but invading them would be a disaster. And given how much this administration has botched the Iraq War, they can't be trusted with any new wars. They're incompetent.

Nadia said...

Beachmom1 remember that the US is a problem too. But invading the US would be a disaster too. It was the US that attacked Iraq 3 years ago, NOT Syria and NOT Iran.

Nadia said...

"I just feel like the Iraqi government is taking its old sweet time, because they know the U.S. military is protecting them in the Green Zone,"

You got that strait right beachmom1.

Bruno said...

[beachmom] "My point about ITM is that the level of debate there is so low. I stated my opinion, and people swore at me, called me names, etc. They didn't seem to want to defend Mohammed's post and explain why my opinion was wrong in a civilized manner. And they do come across as fascists"

LOL! You don't say. I had no problem taking them on at their own game, (and boy, you must hear "BG" and "Marine Dad" whine about it) but after a while, after one too many posts 'vanished' in the moderation process, I gave up. That lot will entirely be unable to discuss the study on a serious intellectual level, so forget it.

Bruno said...

[roger] “Myself, I don't think the U.S. will ever leave, following that logic. Instead, the various battles between the militias will simply be spread out, with the U.S. now on this side, now on that one. At the same time, the U.S. gives no room for the spontaneous creation of any native Iraqi order that it considers not in America's interest.”

EXACTLY!

Lynnette in Minnesota said...

Kid,

I was rather distracted by your comment earlier and did not address your original post on ITM.

First, regarding the survey. I am one of those people that tend to be skeptical of things like that. If someone were to tell me that they could get me 20% on an investment, my reaction would be "Oh yeah, right" (heavy sarcasm). That was my reaction to that survey. The numbers were such that I would really want an independent audit of it. Obviously the people at ITM felt the same. It's just that they were more emotional about it. If I read Zeyad correctly, he also thinks those numbers are high. It's just that he would prefer a more scientific assessment of why they could be off. I don't think that the guys at ITM are discounting the seriousness of the violence in Iraq. I don't think they are propagandists or ass-kissers. I think they are people who desparately want something more for their country than a dictatorship. I respect them.

Second, I want to talk to you a little about American patriotism. Bear with me, I know I seem OT. That is if you are serious about wanting the continued presence of our troops for a little longer. By patriotism I don't mean the attitude that "we are better than them". True American patriotism is simply a love of country. It is on a par with love of family. You saw it after 9/11 when people across the country were grieving for those lost. Even if we didn't know them. You saw it in a small town in Alaska when they told Hugo Chavez to shove his offer of cheap fuel after his remarks about the President at the UN. I was never more prouder of my fellow citizens. It didn't mean they loved Bush, it was a knee jerk reaction to defend a slur on a fellow American. You don't see it much around here if you listen to people like Annie. Not because she is anti-war or anti-Bush, but because she appears to latch onto all the regurgitated propoganda she can find at the expense of her country. Without thinking of the cost.

So, you are no doubt wondering where I am going with this. If you want the troops to stay, the guys at ITM will get you there.

Remarks like this:

"The other thing that made me so frustrated too is that America’s funniest monkey called Maliki and assured him that he still gets support." Treasure of Baghdad (my emphasis)

will not.

And now you know why ITM is a "super star" blog. They treat us like friends. The attitude of people like your friend Baghdad Treasure will only attract the Annie's and anti-war crowd. These are the people who want the troops out yesterday.

I am trying to be honest with you on this, btw. Nothing more.

beachmom1,

So first what needs to happen is a Dayton like Summit that brings all the parties together...

Indeed. I don't mean to be nitpicky, but what do you think they have been trying to do with this reconciliation business?

...as well as all the countries in the Middle East to hash out an agreement.

When we first arrived in Iraq we were looking for outside forces to help police the country. The Iraqis rejected that idea. They didn't want anymore outside military forces in the country. They now are worried about the influence of Iran in Iraq. How well do you think this idea of involving other countries in their political process would fly with them now?

annie said...

tom..
the idea the current deployment of the Eisenhower is somehow special, is nothing more than election year politics.

really? thats odd because if you google the name by 'news ' the first thing that pops up is
Overhauled carrier USS Eisenhower to deploy after six years


why would they say it like that, from the local virgina home of the carrier.

NORFOLK, Va. (AP) -- The aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower is going to sea again after a major overhaul and a nuclear refueling.

the Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group also includes the guided-missile cruiser USS Anzio, guided-missile destroyers USS Ramage and USS Mason, and the fast-attack submarine USS Newport News. All have their home port in Norfolk.

The "Ike" last deployed in February 2000 and returned in August of that year.

The Eisenhower, nearly 29 years old, entered Northrop Grumman's Newport News shipyard in May 2001 for a $1.5 billion mid-life refueling of two nuclear reactors and an overhaul.


also, if this were election year politics why wouldn't it be all over the news like foley/ why only seymour hersh (y'know the guy who broke the abu Graib and my lai stories), scoot ridder@ democracynow etc.

also, the attack at camp falcon? can we find anything about it at centcom? why is this massive assault on the base headline news in the US? you tube is already carrying vidoes of the reposts on arab news stations. seems oddly quiet here.. election dy politics.

beach Finally, our forces are going to remain in the region (Kuwait, perhaps) indefinitely

i'll say wonder where the money went

interesting link from popular mechanics check out this comment that linked to it


Well, Have you seen the satellite pics of Iraq/Kuwait border?
Even if we pull out we still get their oil. How??? Slant drilling from Kuwait. I was corresponding (adopted a soldier in Iraq) with a soldier who was stationed in Kuwait near the border and he sent me currency before it was made into fiat currency and pictures of the huge megalith pipeline laying along the inside of the Kuwaiti border that went underground on the Kuwait side. This was early on. He said we or the oil company personnel were working 24/7 to lay that huge pipeline. You could drive a huge truck through that thing it was soooooo big.

So then I found the satellite pictures from Popular Mechanics showing the area along the Kuwait border BEFORE THE INVASION and next to it, a satellite picture AFTER THE INVASION. When you viewed these pictures side by side as the article points out, you understood the reason for that huge pipeline that the soldier talked about. It appeared they were building derricks and burnoffs of the gas on the Kuwait side and you could see the increase in the lights as a result of that burning of the gas which wasn't there before the invasion.


we will be in kuwait alright, forever.

annie said...

whoops, that should have read why isn't this headline news in the US

annie said...

again, sorry

Nick said...

"OpinionJournal publishes the best deconstruction yet of the Johns Hopkins Lancet study on Iraqi mortality due to the war. It is not based on denial or wishful thinking, but on the thing most glaringly absent from the study: science.
The group–associated with the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health–employed cluster sampling for in-person interviews, which is the methodology that I and most researchers use in developing countries. Here, in the U.S., opinion surveys often use telephone polls, selecting individuals at random. But for a country lacking in telephone penetration, door-to-door interviews are required: Neighborhoods are selected at random, and then individuals are selected at random in “clusters” within each neighborhood for door-to-door interviews. Without cluster sampling, the expense and time associated with travel would make in-person interviewing virtually impossible.
However, the key to the validity of cluster sampling is to use enough cluster points. In their 2006 report, “Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: a cross-sectional sample survey,” the Johns Hopkins team says it used 47 cluster points for their sample of 1,849 interviews. This is astonishing: I wouldn’t survey a junior high school, no less an entire country, using only 47 cluster points.
Neither would anyone else. For its 2004 survey of Iraq, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) used 2,200 cluster points of 10 interviews each for a total sample of 21,688. True, interviews are expensive and not everyone has the U.N.’s bank account. However, even for a similarly sized sample, that is an extraordinarily small number of cluster points. A 2005 survey conducted by ABC News, Time magazine, the BBC, NHK and Der Spiegel used 135 cluster points with a sample size of 1,711–almost three times that of the Johns Hopkins team for 93% of the sample size.
What happens when you don’t use enough cluster points in a survey? You get crazy results when compared to a known quantity, or a survey with more cluster points. There was a perfect example of this two years ago. The UNDP’s survey, in April and May 2004, estimated between 18,000 and 29,000 Iraqi civilian deaths due to the war. This survey was conducted four months prior to another, earlier study by the Johns Hopkins team, which used 33 cluster points and estimated between 69,000 and 155,000 civilian deaths–four to five times as high as the UNDP survey, which used 66 times the cluster points.
The 2004 survey by the Johns Hopkins group was itself methodologically suspect–and the one they just published even more so.
Read the whole thing. It’s worth your time"

Nick said...

"OpinionJournal publishes the best deconstruction yet of the Johns Hopkins Lancet study on Iraqi mortality due to the war. It is not based on denial or wishful thinking, but on the thing most glaringly absent from the study: science.
The group–associated with the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health–employed cluster sampling for in-person interviews, which is the methodology that I and most researchers use in developing countries. Here, in the U.S., opinion surveys often use telephone polls, selecting individuals at random. But for a country lacking in telephone penetration, door-to-door interviews are required: Neighborhoods are selected at random, and then individuals are selected at random in “clusters” within each neighborhood for door-to-door interviews. Without cluster sampling, the expense and time associated with travel would make in-person interviewing virtually impossible.
However, the key to the validity of cluster sampling is to use enough cluster points. In their 2006 report, “Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: a cross-sectional sample survey,” the Johns Hopkins team says it used 47 cluster points for their sample of 1,849 interviews. This is astonishing: I wouldn’t survey a junior high school, no less an entire country, using only 47 cluster points.
Neither would anyone else. For its 2004 survey of Iraq, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) used 2,200 cluster points of 10 interviews each for a total sample of 21,688. True, interviews are expensive and not everyone has the U.N.’s bank account. However, even for a similarly sized sample, that is an extraordinarily small number of cluster points. A 2005 survey conducted by ABC News, Time magazine, the BBC, NHK and Der Spiegel used 135 cluster points with a sample size of 1,711–almost three times that of the Johns Hopkins team for 93% of the sample size.
What happens when you don’t use enough cluster points in a survey? You get crazy results when compared to a known quantity, or a survey with more cluster points. There was a perfect example of this two years ago. The UNDP’s survey, in April and May 2004, estimated between 18,000 and 29,000 Iraqi civilian deaths due to the war. This survey was conducted four months prior to another, earlier study by the Johns Hopkins team, which used 33 cluster points and estimated between 69,000 and 155,000 civilian deaths–four to five times as high as the UNDP survey, which used 66 times the cluster points.
The 2004 survey by the Johns Hopkins group was itself methodologically suspect–and the one they just published even more so.
Read the whole thing. It’s worth your time"

Nick said...

Here's the article http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110009108

annie said...

what a joke! the only people who consider ITM a "super star" blog, are the swifly degenerating rabid right, that is the one's that read. don't forget the bulk of the red states are one step away from illiterate because anyone who follows the news (beside fox) is aware the america they
support
and love is being sold out to criminals who have to rapidly push pre election legislation to protect themselves from the groundswell of outrage enveloping our country.

... provisions that attempt to render the Geneva Conventions unenforceable in court, immunize CIA personnel for past abuses [ex post facto], and bar detainees from asserting their right to habeas corpus. Among other things ...

... It immunizes government officials for past war crimes; it cuts the United States off from its obligations under the Geneva Conventions; and it all but eliminates access to civilian courts for non-citizens--including permanent residents whose children are citizens--that the government, in its nearly unreviewable discretion, determines to be unlawful enemy combatants....


"Our Supreme Leader signed the Military Commissions Act today. Jim Bovard, author of several invaluable books on the Bush administration's countless crimes [...] has labeled this legislation "the torture/dictatorship law." It is a measure of the impenetrable and forbidding depths to which we have descended that Bovard's descriptive label is entirely accurate.


and ms lynn has the audacity to suggest i'm not patriotic! w/a mere 16% of americans of the in new cbs poll believing the administrations bs about 9//11 i'm afraid the company she's keeping is slim, fast approaching none.


he would prefer a more scientific assessment

i'm afraid they may be hard pressed , lancet has been considered the foremost , acknowedged scientific medical jouranl on the planet! and btw they are "independant" so take your I would really want an independent audit of it. and shove it. where would you ever find a scientific authority outside of the creationalist crowd even interested in wasting their time debunking lancet? they aren't a political entity. just because you can't imagine so many deaths, what does that say? i can't imagine a trillion dollars, doesn't mean it wasn't 'lost' (according to mr rummy himself)

you are a joke lynn. who the f listens to you anyway?

I think they are people who desparately want something more for their country than a dictatorship

yeah, and that goes for americans too. if it weren't for diebold we would have one.
it is you lynn, that are a disgrace to this country, you and your ilk. thank god you are a dying breed.
medical

annie said...

earth to nick, you crack me up. the opinion you posted was written by

"Mr. Moore, a political consultant with Gorton Moore International, trained Iraqi researchers for the International Republican Institute from 2003 to 2004 and conducted survey research for the Coalition Forces from 2005 to 2006."

is this anyone's idea of independent? why would you listen to a critic by a political consultant? make that republican political consultant. usually i don't cross post, but this is something i wrote at 24's



you guys are into privatization right? why don't you just find an organization that is in the actual business of doing surveys, like zogby, or gallop (they're right wing, maybe they would stump for you), or someone like lancet who has a reputation to uphold. some group that has a stake in their opinion as lancet does, because it is their specialty. some group w/ actual previous standing in the field of these kinds of surveys, even another school like stanford, or princton, anyone, who has done numerous surveys, and have them challenge the results. i don't hear anyone thus far in the field challenging the top medical journal, the most respected in the world. centcom? that would be like the baker competeing w/the butcher to cut up a cow. does the baker have equal standing just because he takes an opposing view?

there is this rovian meme that has invaded society, the msm, that any view of an issue gets equal weight, simply to balance it. that is silly.

if a doctor tells you you have cancer, and the minster tells you you don't, who are you going to listen to? the minister can pull a multitude of theories and explanations and hypothesis out of his hat , as katrin trys to do, is the doctor suppsed to refute each one of them? hell no. on the other hand, if another doctor disputes this, well, the first doctor can lay his story on the line. so lets wait around and see if anyone w/any standing in the profession refutes this.


to quote one of my favorite posters

This argumentative basis is similar to me saying “the Holocaust could not have happened, because the numbers involved are enormous and therefore incredible”

seriously, find a private, non political entity previously in the business of these kinds of surveys, w/a reputation to uphold refute this. then i will listen so far, the silence is deafening.

ella said...

Beachmom1

I do not care if a good solution to what is happening in Iraq would come from democrats, neo-cons, leftists, rightist, iraqis themselves or martians.
What mr Kerry proposed sounds good, however before I can say anything more about his proposals I need to read his exact proposition, then perhaps the discussion will be based on better ground from my side.
However reading what you said I see one big problem. All countries in the ME have their own politics and their own view-points and may not take into account what Iraqis want or need.
Take for example Iran or Jordan or KSA, they all support different groups in Iraq and their position up to now did not help to solve Iraqis situation but often exacerbated it.
Contrary to what many people in US believe governments, countries, and supra national organizations (ex: MB) in the ME have all their own politics and play often very complicated political games.
I am not sure about what exactly mr Kerry proposed, but you and democrats need to take the political slant of different countries/organizations in the ME re Iraq very much into an account.

Katrin said...

Annie

lancet has been considered the foremost , acknowedged scientific medical jouranl on the planet!

On the planet? How much do they pay for your statement?

thank god you are a dying breed.

I've heard those tunes, I know them. not in English, though, rather in German. Do you have a short leg?

Anonymous said...

an italian said

I did, especially at Zeyad's blog, and it's on record; and this before ANY of you simian Ahmehwican warmongers noticed that the 'purple-fingered' militias you put in power were committing horrors in US-'liberated' Ey-rak...


Hello again,
I don't think its in you to put the blame on, let's say non-western groups, that's what it feels like.

Yes, you've just referred to Shia militias but only in such a way as to say that its the US' fault.
I don't know what you wrote at Zeyad's blog but if you ever referred to Jihadis carbombing marketplaces again I'm sure you would state or imply that this is the US' fault.

These people they aren't robots, they all have their human decisions. When they've made their choice to blow up shoppers, this is what they really do.
Yet I'm sure you have far more forgiveness for these people and say it's actually the US' fault, and I'm sure you have more forgiveness for Saddam's or the Taliban's regimes than you could ever have for the US.

The greatest outrage in the world its quite reasonable to say is Darfur. Yet the outrage is pretty tepid, in a "left-leaning" world I'm guessing because its arab Jangaweed militias and not white militias.

Well that's all I can think of to say now. Bye

Lynnette in Minnesota said...

you are a joke lynn. who the f listens to you anyway?

Sadly Annie, very few. More's the pity.

"...and btw they are "independant"

Are their samplers?

annie said...

ella before I can say anything more about his proposals I need to read his exact proposition,

funny, from a person who stumps for the neocons, did you read their exact proposition, the clean break? if you did what do you think of it? if not why didn't you read it? please link to any exact proposition from the side you support.

katrin, On the planet? How much do they pay for your statement?

cool, then it should be very simple for you to debunk it.

a story. my neighbors and some of my best friends, very non political people, are both scientists. one of them is famous. when i heard the first lancet study a few years ago my first thought was, who is lancet? back then, people were not so aware of the shinanigans of the neocons, and i do not bore my non political friends w/endless streams of war news(you guys are special), they know i'm into this kind of stuff, but for the most part, they can't or don't want to keep up. anyway, i was walking the dog w/mary and ask her... btw, have you ever heard of lancet. she's like 'sure, thats th leading medical journal, jerry's been published in lancet'. (her husband worked on the gnome preject, discovered an alziemers gene, massively famous in his field of Biochemistry)

i ask her, 'so they are fairly well established?' and she said, 'they are THE medical journal, there isn't another of their standing'.

since they are published out of england i didn't ask, you mean in the world? had it been an american company i may have thought this was an exceptionalist viewpoint, but apparently this is just the acknowledged scientific source. albeit, i didn't double check that w/another source, but these friends of mine, they are more than connected.

so,was i exagerating when i said the planet? hmm, you tell me. just do some research guys, you who are so ready to downplay these results.hell, forget the results, just find some prior criticisms of lancet. do they have any competition? they must, maybe their competiton can debunk it. don't you know any doctors? from the lot of you? i wouldn't believe any doctor debunking the study, but i wonder what doctor would dare debunk lancet?

maybe you guys are just lazy. write centcom or the gop, maybe they can help you out.

until then SU, you haven't a leg to stand on, but you still have your life, unlike 655,000 iraqi's.

annie said...

what's a sampler lynn?

annie said...

Slandering Sound Science
"Speaking as a medical doctor, I wish to set the record straight. The Lancet study is superb science. The study followed a strict, widely accepted methodology to arrive at its sobering conclusion. The study is being attacked not on scientific grounds, but for ideological reasons.

People may not realize that The Lancet is the world,s most prestigious medical journal. Prior to publication, the Iraq study was subjected to a thorough peer-review by specialists in the field of epidemiology.

Three of the study's authors, Gil Burnham, Shannon Doocy, and Les Roberts, are doctors at Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health. The fourth author, Riyadh Lafta, is on the faculty of Al Mustansiriya University in Baghdad.

In a war-ravaged country, an estimate of war-related deaths based on the method of counting bodies will radically underestimate the number of people who have died. In Iraq today, there have been numerous reports of mass graves and of bodies dumped in fields, beside roads, or in the Tigris River. These deaths are, by and large, not reported to authorities, as some of these deaths may be linked to police forces. One must also consider the Muslim practice of burial where internment is swift -- often on the same day. Therefore, relying on media reports of the number killed, morgue logs, or Iraq Ministry or US military counts will not provide an accurate estimate of the death toll. We must also not discount the possibility of bias by government officials; the US and Iraq have much to gain by minimizing civilian deaths.

Since the media has been unable to find a scientist critical of the study, they've turned to policy wonks with literally no expertise in the health sciences. Danielle Pletka of the American Enterprise Foundation derides the study, but her advanced degree is in international studies. Nor does Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies nor Michael E. O'Hanlon of Brookings have a health background.

Despite the scientific rigor of the Hopkins study, there is a danger that the unsubstantiated criticism by administration. In this age, where fact shares equal time with conjecture, critics have attempted to discredit the Hopkins study without specifically addressing the science whatsoever. If the administration believes the Hopkins study to be flawed, the federal government should fund its own study of Iraqi mortality, and submit the methodology and results to a medical journal subject to independent peer review. After all the Hopkins study was funded in large part by a $50,000 grant from MIT; surely the federal government could afford such a study."

ella said...

funny, from a person who stumps for the neocons, did you read their exact proposition, the clean break?

Annie

I am not talking to you.
The only thing you can do is to accuse people who have different opinions from yours of being in pay of some shadowy and not so shadowy groups. According to you I am a neo-con, lynnete is a "joke", katrin is "being paid" Again and again and again you are using the same method ........argumentum ad hominem And that's why you are beneath contempt.
Now to give you a taste of your own medicine: You even do not know how to write genome and alzheimer. Have scant idea what proteome is and how genome expresses itself. Haven't heard of axons and Schwann cells. Do not know the differences between DNA and RNA. Know nothing about clinical studies and their methodology. And you are talking about Lancet and your famous friends?
Your friends may be famous but you learnt nothing from them.

Bruno said...

[lynnette] “The numbers were such that I would really want an independent audit of it.”

The study itself is methodologically correct. Sure, one can nitpick here and there, but the basic range of numbers is pretty much indisputable.

The numbers are such that I’d really want a big, international cluster survey done on Iraqi mortality by a third party. Oddly enough, that’s what the authors of the study want as well.

[lynnette] “And now you know why ITM is a "super star" blog. They treat us like friends.”

At the cost of their fellow Iraqis, their country and their integrity.

Is it any wonder that their views are not reflected in Iraqi opinion polls? Is it any wonder that most other Iraqi bloggers give them a hearty thumbs down? I just hope that whatever they get out of this is worth the blood on their consciences … assuming they have any.




[nick] “What happens when you don’t use enough cluster points in a survey?”

What happens is that your CI get larger and the bell curve becomes less peaked, in other words your normal distribution will be flatter. The general trend of the result, unless the CI range is ludicrously huge, will still be indicated. I’m prepared to accept the lowest +- 400000 figure if it makes you feel better, but the toll is still massive.

[nick] “The 2004 survey by the Johns Hopkins group was itself methodologically suspect–and the one they just published even more so.”

One of the main criticisms of the 2004 study was the large CI (fair enough) which is why they doubled the clusters on this one. This study is MORE accurate than the 2004 one. You don’t know what you are talking about.



[annie] “lancet has been considered the foremost , acknowedged scientific medical jouranl on the planet!
[katrin] “On the planet? How much do they pay for your statement?”

Um, yes, that’s a solid debunking of the Lancet. You’ve convinced me entirely.



[ella] “Know nothing about clinical studies and their methodology. And you are talking about Lancet and your famous friends? Your friends may be famous but you learnt nothing from them.”

So you have a medical background? Good. Perhaps you can confirm that The Lancet is a junk magazine that publishes scientifically dubious papers without peer review. Or perhaps you could refute the Burnham study on a statistical basis?

Simply, your expertise in one field does not make you an authority in other fields, including logic. This sort of approach of yours is called Appeal to False Authority, since we are talking about logical fallacies.

beachmom1 said...

Lynnette in Minnesota,

I'm not sure you'll read this, since the thread is so long, but I just want to leave you with one point. The kind of diplomacy I am talking about would be unprecedented -- the reconciliation efforts organized by the Iraq government and the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, while praiseworthy, are vastly insufficient. I mentioned the Dayton Summit because that was also a very complex negotiation, where hundreds of thousands of people had died in a brutal ethnic cleansing war, so if it worked then, then it would have a chance to work now.

Condi Rice making a few surprise visits to Iraq now and again does NOT amount to a sustained diplomatic effort. So much more needs to be done. But this president's strong suit is not diplomacy, which is why I lament John Kerry not being elected in 2004.

On patriotism, for me that means honoring our American values set in the Declaration of Independence and the U.S. Constitution. Take a look at that Detainee bill that was just signed this week, and tell me where that represents American values. Perhaps then you can understand why many people in this country are very angry, that and the war, of course.

ella said...

Simply, your expertise in one field does not make you an authority in other fields, including logic
Bruno
You have no idea what kind of background I have. It may be that I just googled the "medical" words and strung them up in no particular order. However I dare you to look at my posts and tell me where I used "Appeal to False Authority"
Can you do that Bruno?

Tom Villars said...

annie sid, "really? thats odd because if you google the name by 'news ' the first thing that pops up is Overhauled carrier USS Eisenhower to deploy after six years

why would they say it like that, from the local virgina home of the carrier."

This conversation has reached the point of diminishing returns, but the one nice thing about this debate is there will be a teachable moment come Nov 7th. Either the Eisenhower (or some other US asset) will have attacked Iran or not. How about we agree to wait until after the election and revisit the issue to see who was correct. Agreed?

gandhi said...

The Iraq The Model blog is just a front for the US neo-conservatives. Even the name is a neo-con meme. Believe me, I did a LOT of research into these guys: the results are here.

As you may know, the Fadhil brothers actually went to the Oval Office in 2004 and met with Bush and Wolfowitz. Whatever they say on their blog is intended 100% for their US-based audience of GOP-voting idiots. It is pure propaganda.

Whether they believe their own shit or not doesn't really matter.

Anonymous said...

Gandhi

Hehe, I was just browsing through your blogpost and came across this line.

"And why do they tolerate the outrageously militant, rude, racist and otherwise abusive comments by some visitors to their blog, while banning pacifists like me who seek to engage in honest debate?"

Its doubtful, although you may not realise it yourself, you sound just as righteousminded and abusive as the rest of the liberals here. Even your 4 line comment has abuse in it.

So no not "while banning pacifists like me who seek to engage in honest debate?" Hehe, thats a bit too err.. easyminded. I can't think of the proper word.
Arguing liberals do use abuse alot thats all.

Anonymous said...

In the meantime I've had second thoughts and should stop playing this game of oneupmanship. Bye all

The Sanity Inspector said...

Understood, I appreciate democracy and freedom of speech, but I...

Change the "but" to "therefore", and finish the sentence.

Anonymous said...

Kid,

If you want America to FIX IT. Do you want America to override the elected goverment of Iraq. I'm becoming convinced more and more each day it is the only way to fix Iraq.

Iraqi Mojo said...

'It's time to unite against all the unfairness in this world against Iraqis but now we'll have to unite against some Iraqis it seems.'

The 'resistance' have been mass murdering Iraqis for a long time - long before the US invaded Iraq.

Anonymous said...

Accusing people of being "liberals" is such an American thing. It seems a lot of posters here are just here to excuse mass murder and savage war crimes on the part of the US by any means necessary, either by arguing against the merits of the Lancet study, or if that fails, then explaining it away a part of Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence. Every way you look at it, the invasion and occupation of Iraq has been an unmitigated disaster, so much so, that it all seems intentional. If nation building fails, then let there be no nation at all, so all the factions can be controlled in an old game of divide and conquer. How 19th century!

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